Derby Day Stats: Do Derbies Really Mean More Cards and Fewer Goals? (725 Derbies Analysed)

Every derby preview says the same thing: form goes out of the window, tackles fly in, and nobody wants to lose, so it ends 1-0 with eight bookings. Some of that is true. Some of it isn't.

We took a hand-picked list of 175 local derbies and national rivalries in 24 countries and compared 725 league derbies with the same teams' other league matches in the same seasons.

Data: StatPair match database · domestic leagues in 24 countries · July 2024 to 12 October 2026 · 725 league derbies plus 67 cup and super cup derbies · Updated: 13 October 2026

TL;DR

• Derbies really do mean more cards. They averaged 5.17 yellow cards per match, against 4.23 expected from the same teams' other matches. That's 0.94 extra yellows, or about 22% more.
• Red cards go up by about half: 0.31 per match against 0.21 expected. A red was shown in 25% of derbies, compared with 19% normally.
• Card lines are where it shows most. Over 3.5 yellow cards landed in 74% of derbies (60% expected) and Over 4.5 in 57% (43% expected).
• Fewer goals? Only slightly. Derbies averaged 2.59 goals against 2.75 expected, and Over 2.5 hit 47% against 52%. When we matched opponents by strength, the gap shrank to 0.10 goals, which is within the noise.
• Home advantage doesn't shrink. Home teams won 45% of derbies, exactly what we'd expect from these teams.
• It isn't the referee. Derby referees are average card-givers elsewhere, yet showed 0.96 more yellows in derbies than in their own other matches.

How we measured it

We built the derby list by hand, tagging each fixture as a local derby (same city or region, such as the Old Firm or the Superclásico) or a national rivalry (such as El Clásico or Der Klassiker). It covers the big five, the Championship, Serie B, Segunda División, Brazil, Argentina, Liga MX, MLS and 14 other leagues.

We compared derbies with three baselines:

• League average: all non-derby matches in the same league and season.
• Same teams (main baseline): the home side's other home league matches and the away side's other away league matches that season. This matters because derby clubs are often bigger than average.
• Quality-matched: the same teams, but only against opponents within 0.3 points per game of the real derby opponent. This tests whether it's just "big team plays big team" (393 derbies qualify).

Cup derbies are reported separately.

Step 1: what changes in a derby

The card effect is the strongest result in the study: the extra 0.94 yellows is about ten times its standard error. It survives the quality-matched test (+0.72 yellows, +0.12 reds) and a top-six test: derbies between two top-six clubs averaged 5.21 yellows, against 4.32 in other top-six meetings (268 derbies, 1,711 other matches).

Fouls rise as well, but much less: about 8%, from 24.10 to 25.97. So the extra cards aren't only extra fouls. A foul in a derby is more likely to bring a card.

Goals are a different story. The same-teams gap of 0.15 goals is small, and it nearly disappears in the quality-matched test (−0.10, standard error 0.08) and the top-six test (2.76 against 2.78). Shots and corners dip slightly, so derbies are a little scrappier, but not the low-scoring lock previews suggest.

Step 2: does home advantage shrink?

No. Home teams won 45% of derbies, drew 27% and lost 28%, against 45%, 26% and 30% predicted. Home sides took 0.50 more points per match than away sides, against 0.41 in non-derby matches: within the margin of error, but the opposite of the myth.

In the big five leagues, home sides did slightly better than usual: 50% home wins against 43% expected (202 derbies, standard error about 4 points).

Both sides collect more cards: home teams 2.45 yellows against 1.96 expected, away teams 2.72 against 2.27. The derby effect is about the same for both. Our home vs away stats guide covers the general pattern.

Step 3: local derbies vs national rivalries, and region by region

(Expected = same teams' other league matches that season.)

Local derbies are the real thing: a full extra yellow and 0.14 extra reds per match. National rivalries add about 0.7 yellows and barely any reds.

South America is where the myth is most true. Derbies there added 1.44 yellows and averaged just 2.03 goals, with only 30% going over 2.5 (42% expected). The "fewer goals" story mostly comes from here.

MLS and Liga MX barely change, apart from red cards (0.37 against 0.22, a small sample).

By country (expected in brackets):

The surprises: Bundesliga derbies didn't produce extra cards (3.72 against 3.95 expected, 20 matches), and neither did Scottish ones (3.94 against 3.89, 33 matches), despite nine Old Firm games. England added 1.15 yellows per derby.

Step 4: is it the referee or the derby?

Leagues often hand derbies to senior officials. If those referees were card-happy, the "derby effect" would really be a referee effect. So for 716 derbies, we measured the referee's yellow cards in his other, non-derby league matches (minimum five) against the league average for those games.

• Derby referees are not stricter. In their other matches, they showed 0.00 yellows above the league average, the same as everyone else. Only 15.4% of derbies went to a "strict" referee (more than half a card above average), against 18.0% of other matches.
• The same referees book more in derbies. They averaged 5.16 yellows in derbies and 4.19 in their own non-derby matches.
• Controlling for both teams and the referee leaves the effect almost unchanged: +0.94 yellows per derby (standard error 0.09).

The extra cards come from the match, not the whistle. The referee still matters for your starting number: Anthony Taylor and Michael Oliver, for example, normally show fewer cards than their league average. Our referee impact analysis explains how to use that.

Step 5: when the cards come

Derbies are booked earlier. They averaged 1.84 first-half yellows against 1.44 expected (+28%), and 3.34 second-half yellows against 2.79 (+20%). Across all derbies, 35.7% of yellows came before half-time, compared with 33.9% in other league matches.

Goals barely changed by half (1.10 and 1.40, against 1.16 and 1.45 normally). More in our first-half vs second-half stats guide.

Step 6: the players

We compared 10,150 player-seasons (21,154 derby appearances) with each player's own record in non-derby league matches that season (minimum five appearances).

(Own non-derby average → derby.)

A starter's chance of being booked rises by more than a quarter, in every position. Fouls per 90 rise by about 9%, and shots per 90 fall by 13%.

Normally card-shy players saw the biggest jump, though part of that is regression to the mean. The practical point: nobody is a "safe" no-card player in a derby. Our most fouled and carded players cheat sheet is a good starting list.

The big derbies, one by one

Each fixture's own league averages since mid-2024. With four to nine matches each, one wild game can swing a figure, so read these as history, not forecasts.

Even on small samples, the fiercest city derbies (Boca v River, Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe, Seville, Athens) produce cards far above both clubs' norms, while Der Klassiker, Le Classique and the Manchester derby have recently been booked below expectation. A famous name is not a card signal on its own. Use each fixture's own history, as in our head-to-head analysis guide.

Cup derbies

The 67 cup, super cup and Brazilian state-championship derbies told the same story: 5.49 yellows, 28.91 fouls and 2.33 goals per match, against 3.74, 24.43 and 3.01 in other matches in the same competitions. Treat this as a rough check only, because that baseline includes many mismatches against lower-division sides.

What this means for betting

Cards: the derby premium is real

• Check whether the bookmaker has already priced it. On average, a derby adds almost one yellow card and a 6-point higher chance of a red. Compare the line with the two teams' own averages plus about 0.9.
• Adjust by fixture and league. Premiums were big in Argentina, Turkey, Romania, Portugal and Spain, and almost absent in MLS, Scotland and the Bundesliga.
• Look at first-half card markets. First-half yellows rise by 28%, against 20% after the break.

Player cards and fouls

• Every starter's booking chance goes up by more than a quarter. Defenders went from 17.6% of starts to 22.9%. For more on this market, see our card betting analysis.
• Fouls props move less than cards. Fouls per 90 rise by about 9%, so an "over fouls" bet needs a good price. For the method, see our fouls betting guide.
• Be careful with shots props. Shots per 90 fall by 13% in derbies.

Goals and results

• Don't automatically take the under. Over 2.5 hit 47% in derbies against 52% expected, and the goals gap shrinks to 0.10 per match once opponent strength is controlled. The exception is South America, where derbies really are tight.
• Don't fade the home side. Home advantage held up fully in our data.

Method notes

• The derby list is a judgement call. 175 of our pairings met in league play, and some (Valencia v Villarreal, Preston v Blackburn) are milder rivalries.
• Small samples per derby. Most fixtures appear four or five times, so per-derby numbers are history, not forecasts.
• Seasons: 2024/25, 2025/26 and the start of 2026/27 (calendar years 2024-2026 in the Americas and Japan). Some early 2024/25 data is incomplete, and Ekstraklasa and HNL coverage starts in May 2025.
• Yellow-card lines (Over 3.5, Over 4.5) count yellows only. We have no event minutes, only half splits.
• This is a descriptive study. Derbies also differ in crowds, kick-off times and stakes, and we can't separate all of these.

How to check this with StatPair

1. Use match-by-match history with the opponent filter to see every recent meeting's cards, fouls and goals.
2. Check referee stats for the appointed official. His normal card rate is your starting point.
3. Use the home/away and half filters to compare first-half cards with each team's usual numbers.
4. Run Trends Finder for players hitting card or foul lines, and ask the AI Analyzer for a summary of the fixture.
5. Save repeat derby bookers in your Notebook for the return fixture.

Try StatPair free for 7 days → · Card betting analysis → · Referee impact on match stats →

FAQ

Q: Do derbies have more yellow cards?
A: Yes. Across 725 league derbies, there were 5.17 yellow cards per match, against 4.23 expected from the same teams' other matches. That's about 22% more. Over 3.5 yellow cards landed in 74% of derbies, against 60% expected.

Q: Are there more red cards in derby matches?
A: Yes, about half as many again. Derbies averaged 0.31 red cards against 0.21 expected, and 25% of derbies had at least one red, compared with 19% normally. The rise is concentrated in local derbies.

Q: Do derbies have fewer goals?
A: Only slightly. Derbies averaged 2.59 goals against 2.75 expected, and Over 2.5 hit 47% against 52%. When we matched opponents by strength, the gap shrank to 0.10 goals. South American derbies are the exception, at 2.03 goals per match.

Q: Is home advantage weaker in derbies?
A: Not in our data. Home teams won 45% of derbies, drew 27% and lost 28%, almost exactly what the same teams' other matches predicted.

Q: Are derbies given to stricter referees?
A: No. Referees assigned to derbies show the same number of cards as the league average in their other matches. The same referees showed 0.96 more yellows in derbies than in their own non-derby games, so the extra cards come from the match itself.

Bottom line

The derby myth is half right. Cards rise by almost one yellow per match, red cards by about half and fouls by about 8%, against the same teams, matched opponents and the same referees. Goals barely fall outside South America, and home advantage holds. The derby premium is a card story, not a reason to back the under, and it varies by fixture: Boca v River is not Bayern v Dortmund.