Every Fantasy Premier League manager has bought a player after a big haul and watched him blank for a month. Points are what you want, but they're the noisiest way to judge a player. So which numbers should you look at instead?
We tested two seasons of Premier League player data and matched all 436 players who have played in 2026/27 to the official FPL data. The answer: minutes, shots and defensive contributions. Past points come a long way behind.
Data: StatPair match database (Premier League 2024/25 to 2026/27, 813 matches to 12 October 2026) · official FPL API for 2026/27 points and defensive contributions (Gameweeks 1-6) and 2025/26 season totals · Updated: 15 October 2026
TL;DR
- Shots repeat, points don't. Shots per 90 correlated at 0.80 from 2025/26 to 2026/27 so far. Official FPL points per 90 managed 0.40.
- Shots beat form for attackers. For midfielders and forwards, first-half shots per 90 in 2025/26 predicted second-half points (0.65) better than first-half points did (0.51).
- Minutes come first. Starters reached 60 minutes in 93.8% of 8,228 starts in 2025/26; substitutes in 42 of 3,079 appearances. Lost minutes mostly come from not starting.
- Defensive contributions are hard to hit. Defenders have reached 10 CBIT in 25.4% of 2026/27 starts, midfielders 12 CBIRT in 12.7%, forwards in 0.8%.
- But they repeat. Defensive contributions per 90 correlated at 0.74 season to season, close to shots. Murillo (5 of 6 starts) and Kobbie Mainoo (5 of 5) lead the hit rates.
- Tackles are only part of it: a fifth of a defender's actions. For midfielders they're a decent guide: 5+ tackles earned the 2 points in 75% of starts.
How we measured it
The rules. Point values come from the 2026/27 scoring settings in the official FPL bootstrap-static API, thresholds from the FPL rules page and the Premier League's FPL Rules Copilot:
- Minutes: 1 point for up to 60 minutes, 2 for 60 or more. Goals: 10 (goalkeeper), 6 (defender), 5 (midfielder), 4 (forward). Assists: 3.
- Clean sheets: 4 for goalkeepers and defenders, 1 for midfielders, only with 60+ minutes on the pitch. Goalkeepers and defenders lose 1 point per 2 goals conceded; goalkeepers get 1 per 3 saves. Cards cost 1 (yellow) or 3 (red).
- Defensive contributions: 2 points for a defender with 10+ clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles (CBIT), or a midfielder or forward with 12+ of those plus recoveries (CBIRT), capped at 2 per match. Bonus: 1-3 points via the BPS, where a shot on target is worth +2 BPS.
Matching. We matched every FPL player with 2026/27 minutes to StatPair by name and fixture: 436 of 436. Across 1,853 appearances, minutes agreed in 99.9% of cases, goals in 100% and tackles in 99.7%.
Estimated FPL points. Official per-gameweek points only exist for this season, so for 2025/26 we rebuilt estimated FPL points from our stats (minutes, goals, assists, clean sheets, goals conceded, saves, cards; no bonus or defensive contributions). On 2026/27 data, the estimate exactly matched FPL's points minus those two in 93.4% of appearances. Over 2025/26 it correlated at 0.95 with official season totals (242 players).
Not available: StatPair has no xG, chances created, shots in the box, clearances, interceptions or recoveries. Defensive contributions come from the FPL data.
Which numbers carry over
Correlation shows how well a number holds up: 1 means the same players stay on top, 0 means the past tells you nothing.
| Stat | 2025/26 first half vs second half | 2025/26 vs 2026/27 so far |
|---|
| Shots per 90 | 0.87 | 0.80 |
| Defensive contributions per 90 (FPL) | – | 0.74 |
| Shots on target per 90 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| Tackles per 90 | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| Goals per 90 | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| Assists per 90 | 0.46 | 0.21 |
| Bonus points per 90 (FPL) | – | 0.40 |
| FPL points per 90 | 0.39 (estimated) | 0.40 (official) |
Outfield players: 124 with 900+ minutes in each half of 2025/26; 112 with 1,350+ minutes in 2025/26 and 270+ in 2026/27. FPL only publishes season totals for 2025/26, so there's no half-season split for those rows.
It's the pattern from our most predictable football stats study: volume repeats, outcomes don't. A player who takes four shots a game keeps doing it; whether they go in, and whether his team keeps a clean sheet, moves around much more. Assists are the least reliable stat, and defenders' estimated points per 90 correlated at just 0.14 between halves.
What FPL managers really want is next month's points. So we used first-half numbers to predict the second half.
| First half of 2025/26 | → Second-half est. points per 90 | → Second-half goals per 90 |
|---|
| Shots per 90 | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| Shots on target per 90 | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| Est. points per 90 (form) | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| Goals + assists per 90 | 0.51 | 0.47 |
| Goals per 90 | 0.47 | 0.55 |
66 midfielders and forwards with 900+ minutes in each half.
Shots were the best guide to future points and shots on target to future goals, both ahead of past points and goals. Across seasons, 2025/26 shots per 90 correlated at 0.57 with official 2026/27 points per 90 for midfielders and forwards, level with 2025/26 points (0.56, 62 players). For defenders, nothing predicted points well: the best first-half predictor reached only 0.26.
The last six gameweeks
We split 2025/26 into blocks of six team matches and used each block to predict the next. Minutes count here, since a benched player scores nothing.
| Previous 6 matches | Midfielders and forwards | Defenders |
|---|
| Season-to-date est. points per match | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| Minutes per match | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| Shots per match | 0.48 | 0.37 |
| Last-6 est. points per match (form) | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| Goals + assists per match | 0.36 | 0.22 |
Correlation with estimated points per match over the next six. 1,238 midfielder and forward windows, 716 defender windows.
The season-to-date average beat recent form, clearly for attackers and narrowly for defenders, and attackers' minutes and shots were as good a guide as their last-six points. Blocks of four gave the same picture. It's the 10-match rule again: short runs exaggerate, and hot streaks regress to the mean.
Official 2026/27 points give a tiny test (Gameweeks 1-3 against 4-6, 89 midfielders and forwards): minutes (0.33) and shots (0.24) still beat points (0.16). Six gameweeks is far too early to judge anyone, as our early-season signal vs noise study shows.
Minutes security: who reaches 60
Sixty minutes is worth an extra point and is required for a clean sheet. Once a player starts, he usually gets there.
| 2025/26 starts | Starts | Reached 60 | Played 90 |
|---|
| Goalkeepers | 748 | 99.5% | 99.1% |
| Defenders | 3,115 | 94.9% | 78.2% |
| Midfielders | 3,546 | 92.3% | 47.7% |
| Forwards | 819 | 91.3% | 32.1% |
The real risk is not starting, and rotation players also come off earlier:
| Started in 2025/26 | Players | Reached 60 when starting |
|---|
| 90-100% of team matches | 38 | 98.9% |
| 75-90% | 68 | 96.9% |
| 50-75% | 106 | 93.4% |
| 25-50% | 126 | 90.2% |
| Under 25% | 145 | 84.4% |
Even the 106 regulars who started 75%+ of their team's matches reached 60 in only 85.6% of them, mostly because they didn't start 12.5%. By club, starters reached 60 most often at Brentford (97.5%) and least often at Chelsea (88.1%, with 27 different starters).
The most nailed outfield players of 2025/26 were Virgil van Dijk (60+ in all 38 matches, every one a full 90), James Garner and Jarrod Bowen (38 of 38) and James Tarkowski (37 of 38). So far in 2026/27, 87 outfield players have reached 60 in all six of their team's matches.
Defensive contributions: who hits the threshold
From the official per-match data for Gameweeks 1-6:
| 2026/27, GW1-6 | Starts | Hits | Hit rate | Avg actions | Missed by 1-2 |
|---|
| Defenders (10 CBIT) | 512 | 130 | 25.4% | 7.16 | 16.2% |
| Midfielders (12 CBIRT) | 566 | 72 | 12.7% | 6.98 | 11.8% |
| Forwards (12 CBIRT) | 122 | 1 | 0.8% | 3.79 | 0.0% |
Defenders' actions are 79.3% clearances, blocks and interceptions and 20.7% tackles. Midfielders' are 52.2% recoveries, 26.4% CBI and 21.4% tackles.
The threshold sits right where the best defensive players average, so even they miss often. Defenders averaging 10-12 actions per start hit it in 64.9% of starts (14 players), those averaging 8-10 in 40.4% and those averaging 6-8 in 14.3%.
| Defender | Team | Price | Starts | Hits | Avg CBIT | 2025/26 per 90 |
|---|
| Murillo | NFO | £5.5m | 6 | 5 | 10.5 | 9.42 |
| Pinnock | COV | £4.5m | 4 | 3 | 11.5 | – |
| B. Thomas | COV | £4.0m | 6 | 4 | 12.3 | – |
| Botman | NEW | £5.0m | 6 | 4 | 11.5 | 10.60 |
| Tarkowski | EVE | £6.2m | 6 | 4 | 11.3 | 10.16 |
| Muharemović | LEE | £5.0m | 6 | 4 | 11.3 | – |
| C. Richards | CRY | £4.9m | 6 | 4 | 10.7 | 9.91 |
| Branthwaite | EVE | £5.5m | 6 | 4 | 10.7 | – |
| Midfielder | Team | Price | Starts | Hits | Avg CBIRT | 2025/26 per 90 |
|---|
| Mainoo | MUN | £5.5m | 5 | 5 | 14.4 | 10.18 |
| M. Sangaré | BRE | £5.6m | 4 | 3 | 11.3 | – |
| Janelt | BRE | £5.0m | 6 | 4 | 13.0 | 11.49 |
| Bentancur | TOT | £5.5m | 4 | 2 | 13.8 | 13.31 |
| Stach | LEE | £6.0m | 6 | 3 | 11.3 | 10.11 |
| Ampadu | LEE | £5.4m | 6 | 3 | 11.3 | 12.00 |
As of 14 October 2026 (Gameweeks 1-6), ranked by hit rate, minimum four starts (79 defenders and 90 midfielders qualify). Prices from the FPL API on 15 October. "2025/26 per 90" is last season's defensive contributions per 90, where the player had 900+ Premier League minutes.
Four to six starts is tiny, so last season's rate is the better anchor, and it holds up: 2025/26 defensive contributions per 90 correlated at 0.66 with 2026/27 hit rates for both defenders (45 players) and midfielders (54). Last season's highest rates (1,800+ minutes) belonged to Elliot Anderson (13.91 per 90, now at Manchester City), Rodrigo Bentancur (13.31) and João Gomes (12.31) in midfield, and Marcos Senesi (11.47), James Hill (11.13) and Daniel Ballard (11.08) in defence. FPL only publishes 2025/26 season totals, so last season's per-match hit rates aren't available.
Most shots on target per 90, 2026/27
| Player | Team | Pos | Price | SoT | SoT per 90 | Shots per 90 | FPL points |
|---|
| Erling Haaland | Man City | FWD | £15.6m | 11 | 1.87 | 3.74 | 45 |
| Bukayo Saka | Arsenal | MID | £9.6m | 10 | 1.77 | 3.01 | 34 |
| Alexander Isak | Liverpool | FWD | £9.0m | 7 | 1.52 | 3.25 | 33 |
| Marcus Tavernier | Bournemouth | MID | £6.1m | 8 | 1.44 | 2.34 | 32 |
| Tobe Barry | Everton | FWD | £5.7m | 8 | 1.43 | 3.92 | 26 |
| Julian Strand Larsen | Crystal Palace | FWD | £6.0m | 6 | 1.41 | 2.11 | 19 |
| Bryan Mbeumo | Man Utd | MID | £7.9m | 8 | 1.33 | 3.50 | 33 |
| M. Belloumi | Hull City | MID | £5.2m | 6 | 1.27 | 3.18 | 37 |
StatPair data to 12 October 2026, minimum 360 minutes (174 players qualify). FPL points and prices from the FPL API on 15 October.
Tobe Barry stands out: 3.92 shots per 90, the most in this table, but only 26 points. On the evidence above, his points are more likely to catch up than his shots are to dry up. Further down, João Pedro (45 points) has scored 5 goals from 6 shots on target and Rayan Cherki (44 points) 4 from 5. That rate won't last.
What this means for FPL and player props
For your FPL team
- Check minutes first. Players who start 90%+ of matches reach 60 almost every time. Below 50% starts, good numbers won't save you from the bench.
- Buy shots, not hauls. A cold run from a high-volume shooter is usually a better time to buy than a hot run from a low-volume one.
- Judge defenders on role. Their points barely repeat, but a centre-back averaging 8-12 CBIT earns 2 points in roughly 40-65% of starts, clean sheet or not.
- Trust season averages over form. The season-to-date average was the best predictor of the next six matches.
Moving between FPL and player props
The same logic applies to player prop markets. Shot volume is the most repeatable attacking stat, and minutes risk is the same problem in both: a bench start ruins an FPL pick and a shots over alike. If you do bet, keep it to stakes you're comfortable losing.
Defensive contributions and tackles overlap less than you'd think. StatPair tackles correlated with the full defensive contribution count at 0.33 per start for defenders and 0.61 for midfielders. A midfielder with 5+ tackles earned the 2 points in 75% of starts (20 starts); with none, 1.3%. Our tackles and interceptions guide covers who racks them up.
Sources and method notes
- Rules: FPL rules page (defensive contribution thresholds, 60-minute clean sheet rule, BPS table), bootstrap-static API (2026/27 point values) and FPL Rules Copilot (60-minute, 3-save and 2-goals-conceded thresholds). The Premier League confirmed that defensive contribution points remain for 2026/27 and that the BPS now gives 1 point per three clearances, blocks and interceptions instead of two. Accessed 15 October 2026.
- Official player data: FPL element-summary API (per-match 2026/27, season totals for 2025/26) and fixtures API for all 667 listed players.
- StatPair data: 379, 374 and 60 Premier League matches in 2024/25, 2025/26 and 2026/27; six 2025/26 matches are missing. Player teams were checked against team totals (tackles matched in 746 of 748 team-matches).
- Estimated points exclude bonus, defensive contributions, penalties and own goals, and use the full-match goals conceded for players with 60+ minutes, since StatPair has no goal minutes.
- Samples are small in places: 66 midfielders and forwards in the half-season test, and six gameweeks for 2026/27. The six-match windows reuse players, so they aren't independent.
- No xG. StatPair doesn't provide xG. FPL shows Opta's expected goals, which we didn't test; see our xG websites comparison.
How to check this with StatPair
- Open a player's match-by-match history for minutes and starts. A run of 60-70 minute outings is an early warning.
- Compare shots and shots on target over the last 10 games and the full season. High shots and low goals often means points are coming.
- Use the home/away and opponent filters before a captaincy call.
- For defensive midfielders, check tackles match by match: regular 4+ tackle games point to frequent 12 CBIRT hauls.
- Use Trends Finder to spot rising shot volume, keep a shortlist in your Notebook and ask the AI Analyzer for a pre-match read.
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FAQ
Q: What stats best predict FPL points?
A: Minutes first, then shots. In 2025/26, first-half shots per 90 predicted midfielders' and forwards' second-half points (correlation 0.65) better than first-half points did (0.51). Over six-match windows, the season-to-date average and minutes beat recent form.
Q: How do defensive contribution points work in FPL 2026/27?
A: Defenders earn 2 points for 10 or more clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles (CBIT) in a match. Midfielders and forwards need 12 or more of those plus recoveries (CBIRT). It's capped at 2 points per match.
Q: How often do players get defensive contribution points?
A: In Gameweeks 1-6 of 2026/27, defenders hit the threshold in 25.4% of 512 starts, midfielders in 12.7% of 566 and forwards in 1 of 122. Defenders averaging 10-12 actions per start hit it 64.9% of the time.
Q: Is FPL form a good guide for transfers?
A: Not on its own. Points per 90 correlated at 0.39 between halves of 2025/26 and 0.40 season to season, against 0.87 and 0.80 for shots per 90. Season averages predicted the next six matches better than the last six did.
Q: How often do Premier League starters play 60 minutes?
A: In 2025/26, 93.8% of 8,228 starts reached 60 minutes: 94.9% for defenders, 92.3% for midfielders and 91.3% for forwards. Substitutes reached 60 in only 42 of 3,079 appearances.
Bottom line
FPL points are the noisiest number in the game. Shots per 90 repeat twice as well as points per 90 and, for midfielders and forwards, predict future points at least as well as past points do. Minutes come first for everyone, and the main risk is not starting. Defensive contribution rates hold up season to season, though even the best defenders hit the threshold in only about two starts out of three. Pick players on these numbers and a full season of data, not the last two hauls.