"Goalkeeper over 2.5 saves" is one of the most common bet builder legs. This page ranks the big-five keepers who are making the most saves in 2026/27, shows how often they reach 2, 3 and 4 saves, and checks every name against 2025/26, the venue and the opponent.
Data: StatPair match database · big-five league matches only · 2026/27 to 28 October 2026 (402 matches, 804 goalkeeper starts) plus the full 2025/26 season (1,715 matches, 3,430 starts) · Updated: 29 October 2026 · This page is updated monthly.
TL;DR
- Vandevoordt leads: RB Leipzig's Maarten Vandevoordt is averaging 6.00 saves per 90 and has made 4+ saves in all six starts. Moritz Nicolas (Gladbach, 5.14) is second.
- Saves are up. Big-five keepers are averaging 3.21 saves per start in 2026/27, against 2.88 in 2025/26. 60% of starts reached 3+ saves, against 52% last season.
- Saves follow the defence. Across keepers, saves per 90 correlated at 0.92 with shots on target faced, and at only 0.23 with save percentage.
- They carry over weakly. For 69 keepers in both seasons, saves per 90 correlated at 0.34, far below the 0.75 we found for shots on target among outfield players. Hot starts cool: last season's busiest early keepers dropped from 4.00 to 3.15.
- Opponent and venue matter most. Away against the strongest third of teams, keepers made 3+ saves 70% of the time; at home against the weakest third, 40%.
How to read the tables
- Starts only, minimum five league starts in 2026/27: 94 goalkeepers qualify.
- Saves per 90 = saves divided by minutes, times 90. Only 49 of 4,234 starts lasted less than 90 minutes, so this is almost the same as saves per start.
- 2+, 3+ and 4+ = share of starts in which the keeper reached that number of saves.
- 2025/26 = saves per 90 last season in big-five starts (minimum 10 starts, otherwise the number of starts is shown). "n/a" means no big-five starts in our data.
- Teams: the club he started for most recently. Every goalkeeper's saves were checked against his team's total; they matched in 99.9% of team-matches.
The top 20 by saves per 90, big five 2026/27
| # | Goalkeeper | Team | League | Starts | Saves per 90 | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | SoT faced per start | Save % | 2025/26 saves per 90 |
|---|
| 1 | Maarten Vandevoordt | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | 6 | 6.00 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 7.83 | 77% | 2.73 |
| 2 | Moritz Nicolas | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | 7 | 5.14 | 100% | 100% | 86% | 8.29 | 62% | 3.94 |
| 3 | L. Karius | Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | 7 | 5.00 | 86% | 86% | 71% | 6.00 | 83% | n/a |
| 4 | Finn Dahmen | Augsburg | Bundesliga | 7 | 4.71 | 86% | 86% | 71% | 6.86 | 69% | 3.12 |
| 5 | Marco Carnesecchi | Atalanta | Serie A | 8 | 4.63 | 100% | 100% | 38% | 6.38 | 73% | 3.00 |
| 6 | N. Tornqvist | Monza | Serie A | 5 | 4.60 | 100% | 100% | 80% | 6.80 | 68% | n/a |
| 7 | Arijanet Muric | Sassuolo | Serie A | 7 | 4.57 | 100% | 100% | 71% | 6.57 | 70% | 3.71 |
| 8 | Noah Atubolu | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | 7 | 4.57 | 100% | 100% | 86% | 6.71 | 68% | 2.97 (Freiburg) |
| 9 | Frederik Rønnow | Union Berlin | Bundesliga | 6 | 4.33 | 100% | 67% | 67% | 7.33 | 59% | 2.62 |
| 10 | Álvaro Vallés | Real Betis | La Liga | 10 | 4.30 | 100% | 90% | 60% | 6.00 | 72% | 3.12 |
| 11 | Emiliano Martínez | Chelsea | Premier League | 6 | 4.29 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 5.83 | 71% | 2.98 (Aston Villa) |
| 12 | Filip Stanković | Venezia | Serie A | 9 | 4.22 | 89% | 67% | 56% | 6.33 | 67% | n/a |
| 13 | Emil Audero | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 5 | 4.20 | 100% | 80% | 40% | 6.40 | 66% | 3.61 (Cremonese) |
| 14 | Dominik Greif | Lyon | Ligue 1 | 6 | 4.17 | 100% | 83% | 67% | 5.33 | 78% | 2.71 |
| 15 | N. Noll | Paderborn | Bundesliga | 7 | 4.14 | 71% | 71% | 71% | 5.57 | 74% | n/a |
| 16 | Anthony Lopes | Angers | Ligue 1 | 8 | 4.13 | 88% | 88% | 63% | 5.88 | 70% | 3.23 (Nantes) |
| 17 | L. Palmisani | Frosinone | Serie A | 8 | 4.13 | 100% | 88% | 75% | 6.13 | 67% | n/a |
| 18 | Maduka Okoye | Udinese | Serie A | 9 | 4.11 | 89% | 67% | 56% | 6.11 | 67% | 2.79 |
| 19 | Elia Caprile | Cagliari | Serie A | 9 | 4.11 | 100% | 78% | 44% | 5.56 | 74% | 3.21 |
| 20 | Wladimiro Falcone | Lecce | Serie A | 8 | 4.00 | 75% | 63% | 50% | 6.00 | 67% | 2.89 |
The median among the 94 qualifiers is 3.25 saves per 90.
Three patterns stand out:
- Most of the list is new. Only Nicolas, Muric and Audero were among last season's 12 busiest keepers (minimum 20 starts). Vandevoordt made 2.73 saves per 90 in 2025/26; this season Leipzig are conceding 6.86 shots on target a game, up from 3.97.
- Shots on target faced explain the ranking. Every keeper in the top 20 faces 5.3 or more shots on target per start. Save percentage varies from 59% to 83% without changing the order much.
- Changing club changes everything. Noah Atubolu went from 2.97 saves per 90 at Freiburg to 4.57 at Frankfurt. Emiliano Martínez went from 2.98 at Aston Villa to 4.29 at Chelsea. The other way, Guglielmo Vicario dropped from 2.68 at Tottenham to 1.56 at Juventus.
Also reliable for 3+ saves: Alfonso Herrero (Málaga, 3+ in 9 of 10 starts), Konstantinos Tzolakis (Hull City, 88%), James Trafford (Leeds United, 88%) and E. Corvi (Parma, 4+ in 7 of 8 starts, 88%).
The quietest keepers
Keepers behind dominant defences rarely reach 3 saves. Sergio Herrera (Osasuna) has averaged 1.20 saves per 90 in five starts, Guglielmo Vicario (Juventus) 1.56 while facing just 2.78 shots on target a game, and Mark Flekken (Leverkusen) 2.00. Alisson (Liverpool, 2.13), Joan García (Barcelona, 2.12) and Matz Sels (Nottingham Forest, 2.13) are also near the bottom. Herrera (3.13 last season), Sels (3.26) and Flekken (3.34) were all busy in 2025/26, so these are the names most likely to move back up.
Base rates: what a typical keeper does
| League | 2025/26 saves per start | 2025/26 3+ | 2025/26 4+ | 2026/27 saves per start | 2026/27 3+ | 2026/27 4+ |
|---|
| Bundesliga | 3.07 | 56% | 35% | 3.56 | 67% | 48% |
| Serie A | 2.79 | 50% | 30% | 3.35 | 64% | 45% |
| Ligue 1 | 2.85 | 50% | 34% | 3.23 | 60% | 42% |
| La Liga | 2.97 | 55% | 35% | 3.17 | 57% | 38% |
| Premier League | 2.77 | 52% | 30% | 2.81 | 57% | 34% |
| Big five | 2.88 | 52% | 33% | 3.21 | 60% | 41% |
2025/26: 3,430 starts. 2026/27: 804 starts to 28 October 2026.
In 2025/26, keepers made 2+ saves in 75% of starts and 5+ in 18%. This season the rates are 80% and 24%. The rise comes from shots on target: 4.78 per team per match so far, against 4.30 last season. The team-level average in 2024/25 was 2.94 saves, so expect some of this season's rise to fade as the campaign goes on.
Home and away: in 2025/26, keepers averaged 2.59 saves at home (3+ in 46% of starts) and 3.17 away (3+ in 59%), because they faced 3.86 and 4.75 shots on target respectively. This season the split is 2.89 and 3.53.
Does last season tell you anything?
For 69 keepers with 10+ starts in 2025/26 and 5+ in 2026/27:
| Measure | Correlation, last season to this season |
|---|
| Shots on target faced per start | 0.47 |
| 3+ saves rate | 0.37 |
| Saves per 90 | 0.34 |
| Save % | 0.14 |
Even for the 58 keepers who stayed at the same club, the saves correlation was only 0.31. Within last season, a keeper's saves in his first eight starts correlated with the rest of his season at 0.45, and the two halves of the season at 0.30. For comparison, outfield players' shots on target per 90 carried over at 0.75 in our most reliable shooters cheat sheet. Goalkeeper saves are a much noisier stat.
Hot starts cool down
Grouping last season's keepers by their saves per 90 in their first eight starts:
| First 8 starts, saves per 90 | Keepers | First 8 starts | Rest of season | Rest of season 3+ |
|---|
| 3.5 or more | 26 | 4.00 | 3.15 | 57.7% |
| 2.75-3.5 | 25 | 3.08 | 3.02 | 56.9% |
| 2.0-2.75 | 32 | 2.36 | 2.81 | 51.3% |
| Under 2.0 | 9 | 1.65 | 2.58 | 42.7% |
The busiest early keepers kept above-average numbers, but lost most of their lead: a gap of 2.35 saves per 90 between the top and bottom groups shrank to 0.57. Expect this season's leaders to drift towards 3.2 to 3.5 rather than stay near 5 or 6.
Defences carry over better than keepers
At team level, shots on target conceded per match correlated at 0.57 between seasons (82 teams), against 0.40 for team saves. The teams conceding the most shots on target this season are Borussia Mönchengladbach (8.29 per match, up from 5.48), RB Leipzig and Augsburg (6.86), Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt (6.71) and Sassuolo (6.67). Juventus (2.78), Bayern, Dortmund and Arsenal (3.00) concede the fewest.
Opponent strength: the biggest factor
We split 2025/26 opponents into thirds by their season points per game (cut-offs 1.14 and 1.50).
| Opponent | Starts | Saves per start | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | Home 3+ | Away 3+ |
|---|
| Weakest third | 1,111 | 2.60 | 71% | 46% | 27% | 40% | 52% |
| Middle third | 1,151 | 2.66 | 72% | 48% | 28% | 43% | 54% |
| Strongest third | 1,168 | 3.36 | 82% | 62% | 43% | 54% | 70% |
Away against the strongest third, keepers averaged 3.74 saves and reached 4+ in half of their starts. The keeper's own team matters as much: keepers at the weakest third of teams averaged 3.20 saves (3+ in 59%), those at the strongest third 2.55 (3+ in 45%).
The extremes: a keeper from a bottom-third team playing away at a top-third team averaged 4.07 saves, with 3+ in 75% and 4+ in 56% of 203 starts. A keeper from a top-third team at home to a bottom-third team averaged 2.13, with 3+ in only 33%.
Opponent shooting tells a similar story. Against teams in the top third for shots on target per game, keepers averaged 3.43 saves (3+ in 64%); against the bottom third, 2.36 (41%). Our opponent strength study for player props shows the same effect for outfield players.
Game state: keepers whose team won made 2.64 saves on average, against 3.13 when their team lost (5.52 shots on target faced). If you expect a keeper's team to be under pressure, that already points to more saves.
What this means for betting
Start from the matchup, then the keeper
The base rate for 3+ saves is about 52% to 60%. Move it up for an away keeper facing a strong attack (around 70%) and down for a home keeper from a top side facing a weak one (around 33%). The keeper's own early-season figures are the last thing to look at.
Fade extreme early numbers
With a season-to-season correlation of 0.34 and hot starts losing most of their lead, a keeper averaging 5 or 6 saves after six or seven starts is more likely to average 3 to 3.5 from here. Use the shots on target his team concedes as your anchor.
Watch transfers and new defences
Atubolu, Martínez and Vicario show how quickly a keeper's numbers change with the team in front of him. After a move or a defensive change, ignore last season's saves and look at the new team's shots on target conceded.
Saves and clean sheets pull apart
The busiest keepers are the least likely to keep a clean sheet. For both markets, see our goalkeeper props guide and clean sheet stats by league.
Method notes
- Source: StatPair match database, big-five league starts only. 2026/27 data runs to 28 October 2026.
- Team assignment: 4,255 keeper starts were matched to a team through our player-team records and 40 by matching saves to the team total. Keeper saves equal team saves in 99.9% of team-matches.
- Saves as recorded: saves are taken from match data. Saves don't always equal shots on target minus goals (they did in 84% of team-matches), so we don't calculate saves ourselves.
- Small samples: five to ten starts is a small sample for a stat this noisy. Treat 2026/27 rankings as a shortlist, not a forecast.
- Not included: StatPair doesn't provide xG, xG on target or bookmaker odds. Figures come from the current database and may differ slightly from older StatPair guides.
How to check this with StatPair
- Open the keeper's player page and check saves per match this season and last season.
- Use the home/away filter: the venue split is about half a save per match.
- Use the opponent filter to check how many shots on target the opponent produces, especially away from home.
- Look at the keeper's team: shots on target conceded per match predict saves better than his own history.
- Use the Trends Finder to shortlist keepers who reach 3+ saves often, and save them in your Notebook.
Try StatPair free for 7 days → · Goalkeeper props guide → · Most reliable shooters →
FAQ
Q: Which goalkeeper makes the most saves in 2026/27?
A: Among big-five keepers with five or more league starts, RB Leipzig's Maarten Vandevoordt leads with 6.00 saves per 90 and 4+ saves in all six starts. Moritz Nicolas of Borussia Mönchengladbach is second with 5.14.
Q: How many saves does a goalkeeper make per game on average?
A: In the big five in 2025/26, 2.88 saves per start: 2.59 at home and 3.17 away. 52% of starts reached 3+ saves and 33% reached 4+. In 2026/27 so far the average is 3.21.
Q: Are goalkeeper saves predictable from last season?
A: Only loosely. For 69 keepers in both seasons, saves per 90 correlated at 0.34. Shots on target faced carried over better (0.47), so the team's defence is a better guide than the keeper's history.
Q: When is over 2.5 goalkeeper saves most likely?
A: When the keeper is away against a strong attack. In 2025/26, keepers away to the strongest third of teams made 3+ saves 70% of the time, and keepers from bottom-third teams away at top-third teams 75%.
Q: How often is this page updated?
A: Monthly during the season. The tables, base rates and opponent splits are refreshed each time.
Bottom line
Goalkeeper saves are driven by the shots on target a keeper faces, which depend on his defence, the opponent and the venue. The 2026/27 leaders, Vandevoordt, Nicolas and Karius, are mainly a story about the teams in front of them, and saves carry over between seasons far less than outfield shooting stats. Start from the 52% to 60% base rate for 3+ saves, move it for venue and opponent, and treat extreme early numbers with caution.