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Most Reliable Shooters 2026/27: Players Who Hit 1+ Shot on Target Most Often (Props Cheat Sheet)

Twelve big-five players have hit 1+ shot on target in every 2026/27 league start (minimum five starts), led by Raphinha, Haaland and Saka. Kylian Mbappe leads for shots on target per 90 (3.20). Shot rates carry over well from last season (correlation 0.75 for SoT per 90), but hot starts cool: last season's best early starters hit 58% for the rest of the season.

StatPair TeamFootball Analytics Experts

October 15, 2026 12 min read

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In this article

"Player to have 1+ shot on target" is one of the most popular bet builder legs. This page ranks the big-five players who hit it most often in 2026/27. Five to eight starts is a small sample, so every name is checked against 2025/26.

Data: StatPair match database · big-five league matches only · 2026/27 to 12 October 2026 (297 matches) plus the full 2025/26 season · league starts only · Updated: 15 October 2026 · This page is updated monthly.

TL;DR

Twelve players have hit 1+ shot on target in every start (minimum five), including Raphinha (7/7), Erling Haaland, Bukayo Saka and Bryan Mbeumo (6/6).
Kylian Mbappe leads for volume: 3.20 shots on target per 90, and 2+ on target in 75% of starts.
Shot rates carry over. For 437 players in both seasons, shots on target per 90 correlated at 0.75 and shots per 90 at 0.82. The 1+ SoT hit rate was less stable (0.63).
Perfect starts cool off. Last season, players with 1+ SoT in five or six of their first six starts hit 58.2% afterwards, still double the 27.1% base rate.
Last season is the better anchor. Our top 25 are hitting 91.2%; the 19 with 10+ big-five starts last season hit 64.2%.
Opponents matter. Forwards hit 1+ SoT in 46.9% of starts against the tightest third of defences last season and 56.2% against the leakiest.

How to read the tables

Starts only, minimum five league starts: 622 outfield players qualify. Bundesliga sides have played only five matches, so a higher bar would remove the league.
Hit rate = share of starts in which the player reached the line. Ties are broken by shots on target per 90.
2025/26 = 1+ SoT hit rate in big-five starts last season (minimum 10 starts, otherwise the number of starts is shown). "n/a" means too few starts in our data.
Teams: the club he started for most recently. Our player-to-team matching was checked against team totals and matched every 2026/27 team's shots on target.

The top 25: 1+ shot on target hit rate, big five 2026/27

#	Player	Team	Pos	Starts	1+ SoT	2+ SoT	2+ shots	3+ shots	SoT per 90	Shots per 90	2025/26 1+ SoT
1	Raphinha	Barcelona	FW	7	100%	57%	100%	86%	2.59	4.05	65%
2	Igor Matanovic	Freiburg	FW	5	100%	60%	100%	60%	2.31	3.93	54%
3	P. Mboup	Brest	MF	6	100%	50%	100%	83%	2.05	3.92	78% (9 starts)
4	Niclas Fullkrug	Werder Bremen	FW	5	100%	60%	80%	20%	2.05	2.95	50% (8 starts)
5	Erling Haaland	Manchester City	FW	6	100%	50%	100%	67%	1.87	3.74	85%
6	Bukayo Saka	Arsenal	MF	6	100%	33%	100%	50%	1.77	3.01	71%
7	Phillip Tietz	Mainz	FW	5	100%	60%	100%	100%	1.60	4.20	53%
8	F. Esposito	Inter	FW	5	100%	20%	80%	40%	1.54	3.59	73%
9	Nicolas Pepe	Villarreal	MF	5	100%	40%	100%	40%	1.53	3.06	60%
10	Alexander Isak	Liverpool	FW	5	100%	40%	100%	80%	1.52	3.25	50% (8 starts)
11	Bryan Mbeumo	Manchester United	FW	6	100%	33%	100%	67%	1.33	3.50	66%
12	Kai Havertz	Arsenal	FW	6	100%	17%	67%	33%	1.26	2.16	29% (7 starts)
13	Kylian Mbappe	Real Madrid	FW	8	88%	75%	88%	88%	3.20	5.87	89%
14	Donyell Malen	Roma	FW	6	83%	50%	100%	83%	2.26	4.97	77%
15	Sergio Camello	Rayo Vallecano	FW	6	83%	67%	100%	83%	2.23	3.85	63% (8 starts)
16	Ante Budimir	Osasuna	FW	6	83%	50%	67%	33%	1.87	2.72	68%
17	Florian Thauvin	Lens	MF	6	83%	67%	83%	50%	1.83	3.00	59%
18	L. Mafouta	Le Mans	FW	6	83%	67%	83%	33%	1.82	2.73	n/a
19	Antony	Real Betis	MF	6	83%	50%	83%	83%	1.81	5.06	71%
20	F. Mastantuono	Fiorentina	MF	6	83%	17%	83%	67%	1.73	4.82	36%
21	Lassine Sinayoko	Paris FC	FW	6	83%	50%	83%	67%	1.73	3.45	59%
22	Mbwana Samatta	Le Havre	FW	6	83%	50%	100%	83%	1.56	4.52	53%
23	Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	Deportivo La Coruna	FW	6	83%	50%	67%	50%	1.51	2.36	70%
24	Tobe Barry	Everton	FW	6	83%	33%	100%	83%	1.43	3.92	33%
25	Mattia Zaccagni	Lazio	FW	6	83%	33%	100%	83%	1.34	3.02	42%

Twenty-three of the 25 had a shot in every start. The average outfield starter hits 1+ SoT in 29.0% of starts.

The names to trust: Mbappe (89% last season), Haaland (85%), Malen (77%), Esposito (73%), Saka and Antony (71%) and Aubameyang (70%).

The names to question: Kai Havertz (two of seven starts last season, lowest shot volume here), Tobe Barry, F. Mastantuono and Mattia Zaccagni, who have at least doubled their 2025/26 rates.

Most shots on target per 90 (the 1.5 line)

Player	Team	Starts	SoT per 90	2+ SoT	2025/26 SoT per 90
Kylian Mbappe	Real Madrid	8	3.20	75%	2.15
Raphinha	Barcelona	7	2.59	57%	1.40
Esteban Lepaul	Rennes	5	2.33	60%	1.28
Igor Matanovic	Freiburg	5	2.31	60%	0.81
Donyell Malen	Roma	6	2.26	50%	1.58
Sergio Camello	Rayo Vallecano	6	2.23	67%	1.28 (8 starts)
P. Brunner	Monaco	5	2.08	60%	n/a (1 start)
P. Mboup	Brest	6	2.05	50%	1.11 (9 starts)
Mohamed Zabiri	Racing Santander	5	2.05	60%	n/a
Niclas Fullkrug	Werder Bremen	5	2.05	60%	0.66 (8 starts)

Only Mbappe and Malen were above 1.5 per 90 last season. Matanovic and Fullkrug have nearly tripled their 2025/26 rates, a jump that rarely holds.

Per-league leaders (top five by 1+ SoT)

League	Leaders (1+ SoT in starts)
Premier League	Haaland 6/6 · Saka 6/6 · Mbeumo 6/6 · Havertz 6/6 · Isak 5/5
La Liga	Raphinha 7/7 · Pepe 5/5 · Mbappe 7/8 · Camello 5/6 · Budimir 5/6
Serie A	Esposito 5/5 · Malen 5/6 · Mastantuono 5/6 · Zaccagni 5/6 · Akor Adams (Venezia) 5/6
Bundesliga	Matanovic 5/5 · Fullkrug 5/5 · Tietz 5/5 · Hugo Bolin (Gladbach) 4/5 · Aron Nusa (Leipzig) 4/5
Ligue 1	Mboup 6/6 · Thauvin 5/6 · Mafouta 5/6 · Sinayoko 5/6 · Samatta 5/6

Does it repeat? 2025/26 vs 2026/27

Our most predictable stats study found shots among the most repeatable stats in football. Our own check, on 437 outfield players with 10+ big-five starts last season and 5+ this season: shots per 90 correlated at 0.82 across the two seasons, shots on target per 90 at 0.75 and the 1+ SoT hit rate at 0.63. Within 2025/26, a player's first seven starts predicted the rest of his season about as well (0.75 and 0.67, 1,002 players).

Per-90 rates beat hit rates. Over six starts, one blank moves a hit rate by 17 points. Here every 2025/26 regular is grouped by last season's SoT per 90:

2025/26 SoT per 90	Players	1+ SoT 2025/26	2+ SoT 2025/26	1+ SoT 2026/27	2+ SoT 2026/27	2026/27 starts
Under 0.3	761	12.5%	0.9%	16.7%	1.8%	2,008
0.3-0.6	316	32.0%	5.5%	30.4%	6.2%	868
0.6-0.9	211	47.4%	13.8%	46.4%	13.4%	545
0.9-1.2	101	60.3%	23.3%	59.9%	23.2%	272
1.2-1.5	45	67.7%	32.1%	69.0%	39.4%	142
1.5+	23	77.5%	46.1%	73.4%	43.8%	64

1,457 players with 10+ big-five starts in 2025/26; 969 of them have started in 2026/27.

Last season's SoT per 90 predicts this season's hit rates within a few points. Even the best shooters clear 1+ SoT about three times in four, and 2+ a little under half the time.

Last season's top 20: where are they now?

Player (2025/26 club)	2025/26	2026/27
Rafa Mir (Elche)	95%	no starts
Harry Kane (Bayern Munich)	92%	3/4
Michael Olise (Bayern Munich)	91%	4/4
Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid)	89%	7/8
Erling Haaland (Manchester City)	85%	6/6
Mason Greenwood (Marseille)	83%	no starts
S. El Mala (Koln)	80%	3/3
Corentin Tolisso (Lyon)	80%	3/5
Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)	79%	6/8
Marcus Thuram (Inter)	79%	3/3
Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid)	77%	4/7
Donyell Malen (Roma)	77%	5/6
Luis Diaz (Bayern Munich)	77%	3/4
Folarin Balogun (Monaco)	77%	no starts
Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad)	76%	4/6
Esteban Lepaul (Rennes)	76%	4/5
Matheus Cunha (Manchester United)	75%	3/6
Antoine Semenyo (Manchester City)	75%	3/6
Lautaro Martinez (Inter)	74%	3/4
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds United)	73%	4/6

1+ SoT in big-five starts. Minimum 20 starts in 2025/26, outfield players. "No starts" means no big-five league start in 2026/27.

The 17 with three or more starts this season averaged 79.8% last season and 76.5% now: established shooters hold up. Kane, Olise, Thuram, Diaz and Lautaro miss our top 25 only on the five-start minimum.

Hot starts: what 100% after six games really means

We grouped 2025/26 players (16+ starts) by how many of their first six starts produced 1+ SoT, then checked the rest of their season.

1+ SoT in first 6 starts (2025/26)	Players	Rest of season 1+ SoT
6 of 6	5	52.5%
5 of 6	41	59.0%
4 of 6	99	50.1%
3 of 6	158	42.7%
2 of 6	197	28.5%
1 of 6	288	20.5%
0 of 6	274	13.8%

The order holds, the level doesn't. The 46 players on 5/6 or 6/6 dropped from 85.1% to 58.2%.
6/6 was no better than 5/6. The five perfect starters hit 52.5% afterwards (Rafa Mir 13 of 14, Agyemang Atta 8 of 23).
Longer runs hold a bit better: 7+ of the first 8 (18 players) led to 65.2%.

This season's perfect starters with 10+ big-five starts last season (eight players) hit 67.6% then. That, not 100%, is the sensible starting point. Our early-season signal vs noise study shows how quickly other stats settle.

Position: forwards, midfielders, defenders

Big-five starters, 2026/27 (2025/26)	Starts	1+ SoT	2+ SoT	1+ shot	2+ shots	3+ shots	SoT per 90
Forwards	872	57.1% (52.4%)	23.6% (19.8%)	85.4% (81.7%)	62.6% (56.2%)	39.0% (32.3%)	1.08 (0.94)
Midfielders	2,812	32.3% (30.4%)	7.8% (7.1%)	64.9% (62.7%)	36.9% (31.8%)	17.0% (14.3%)	0.48 (0.44)
Defenders	2,255	14.1% (13.9%)	1.2% (1.3%)	41.1% (38.7%)	13.2% (11.3%)	2.9% (2.9%)	0.16 (0.16)

Our "MF" label covers wingers such as Saka as well as holding midfielders, so we can't isolate attacking midfielders. The top 25 has 19 forwards and six midfielders.

No defender reaches 80% on 1+ SoT. Alex Grimaldo (Atletico Madrid) is closest at 5 of 7. For "defender 1+ shot", Achraf Hakimi (PSG, 5 of 5) and Riccardo Calafiori (Arsenal, 6 of 6) are perfect so far. Our set-piece era study covers defender shot props in depth.

Home vs away

1+ SoT hit rate	Home	Away
All outfield starters, 2026/27	31.2%	26.9%
All outfield starters, 2025/26	29.5%	24.6%
Forwards, 2025/26	56.6%	48.2%
Our top 20, 2026/27	96.7% (60 starts)	89.5% (57 starts)
Same players, 2025/26 (14 with 10+ starts)	75.0%	62.2%

Home adds about four to five points for all starters and eight for forwards. Individual splits are noisy: last season Raphinha hit 89% at home and 38% away, while Saka did better away (83%) than at home (58%).

Opponents: who concedes the most shots on target?

Team	Matches	SoT conceded per match	Shots conceded per match	2025/26 SoT conceded
Borussia Monchengladbach	5	9.00	18.80	5.48
Union Berlin	5	8.00	16.40	4.38
Eintracht Frankfurt	5	7.80	19.20	4.88
Augsburg	5	7.80	22.60	5.00
Lecce	6	7.33	15.50	4.26
Venezia	6	6.83	15.67	promoted
Racing Santander	8	6.63	15.88	promoted
Angers	6	6.33	16.83	5.64
Auxerre	6	6.33	14.83	4.65
Real Sociedad	8	6.25	16.50	4.58

The big-five average is 4.82. Freiburg (2.00), Bayern Munich (2.60), Juventus (2.67) and Barcelona (2.88) have conceded the fewest.

Trust this list less than the player lists: team SoT conceded correlates only 0.54 with last season (82 teams), and the top four are Bundesliga sides with five matches each. But the effect is real. Last season, forwards hit 1+ SoT in 46.9% of starts against the third of teams conceding fewest (about 4.05 per match or fewer), 54.4% against the middle third and 56.2% against the leakiest (4.63 or more).

What this means for betting

0.5 vs 1.5 shots on target

Over 0.5: shooters with 1.5+ SoT per 90 last season hit it in 77.5% of starts, fair odds of about 1.29. Most of the top 25 aren't at that level, so prices built on a 100% start are too short.
Over 1.5: that elite group hit 2+ in only 46.1% (fair odds about 2.17). Mbappe is the one name where 1.5 looks like the natural line. See how bookmakers set player prop lines.

Minutes are the hidden risk

Last season, forwards who played 85+ minutes of a start hit 1+ SoT 62.2% of the time, against 45.3% for 60-74 minutes and 28.8% under 60. Only 41.3% of forward starts lasted 85+ minutes. Malen and Camello have reached 85 minutes in one of six starts each.

Penalties, opponent and venue

We don't record penalties or takers, so check penalty duties separately. The best spots combine an established shooter, a full-match role, home advantage and a leaky opponent. For accuracy and conversion, see our player shot accuracy model and shots on target guide.

Method notes

Scope: big-five league starts, 297 matches to 12 October 2026, with a long international break from 21 September into early October.
More shots this season: over the same window, shots per team-match rose from 12.37 last season to 14.14 and shots on target from 4.17 to 4.82, with goals up from 1.33 to 1.49. Our totals match public match statistics for the same games in both seasons, so this is a real rise, not a recording change. It's early, though: if shot volumes settle back towards last season's level, this season's hit rates will drift down a few points.
Teams: summed player shots on target matched the team total in 99.8% of 2025/26 and 100% of 2026/27 team-matches. Four of 62,606 player rows couldn't be assigned.
Positions are FW, MF and DF only. Names are shown without accents.

How to check this with StatPair

Open the player's match-by-match history and check his last 10+ matches, minutes and home/away split.
Use the opponent filter to check the opponent's shots on target conceded.
Use Trends Finder to scan every league for lines such as "1+ shot on target in 8 of last 10", and save your shortlist in the Notebook.

Try StatPair free for 7 days → · Fouls and cards cheat sheet → · Which stats are most predictable? →

FAQ

Q: Which players have the most shots on target in 2026/27?
A: Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid) leads the big five with 3.20 shots on target per 90, ahead of Raphinha (Barcelona) on 2.59 and Esteban Lepaul (Rennes) on 2.33.

Q: Who are the best players for shots on target bets?
A: For the 1+ line, players strong in both seasons: Haaland (6/6 this season, 85% last season), Mbappe (7/8, 89%), Malen (5/6, 77%), Esposito (5/5, 73%) and Saka (6/6, 71%).

Q: Will a player who has hit 1+ shot on target in every game keep it up?
A: Probably not at 100%. In 2025/26, players who hit 1+ shot on target in five or six of their first six starts hit it in 58.2% of their remaining starts, still double the 27.1% average.

Q: Should I bet over 0.5 or over 1.5 shots on target?
A: Over 0.5 suits most good shooters. Even players averaging 1.5+ shots on target per 90 last season hit 2+ in only 46.1% of starts, against 77.5% for 1+.

Q: How often is this page updated?
A: Monthly during the season. Rankings are based on five to eight starts per player and will settle as the sample grows.

Bottom line

Shot volume is one of the most repeatable things in football: last season's shots on target per 90 predicts this season's hit rates within a few points. That makes Mbappe, Haaland, Malen, Esposito and Saka the most dependable names here. A 100% start is different: last season's hottest starters fell to about 58%. Price off the longer record, check minutes and the opponent, and treat early leaderboards as a shortlist.

Topics

#Shots on Target
#Shots
#Player Props
#Hit Rates
#Regression to the Mean
#Premier League
#2026/27