Quick answer: position tells you the shot line, and it tells you very little about the foul line. In 174,746 outfield appearances of 60 minutes or more, across 29 leagues, a forward recorded at least one shot on target 53.5% of the time, a midfielder 31.4%, and a defender 14.3%. At least one foul committed was 67.2%, 64.3% and 60.6% for those same three groups. Two or more tackles landed 42.8% of the time for defenders and 42.6% for midfielders.
The league moves a forward's shot-on-target rate by about 13 points, from 60.6% in the A-League to 47.7% in League Two. The position moves it by about 39 points. If you only remember one split before you open a player card, remember the position. Then remember that even a forward is a coin flip for one shot on target, and that almost nobody stays at 80%.
Data: StatPair player statistics · appearances with at least 60 minutes · defenders, midfielders and forwards · 29 domestic leagues · 2025/26, or the 2025 calendar season · 174,746 appearances (68,963 defenders, 80,103 midfielders, 25,680 forwards) · Updated: 31 October 2026
TL;DR
- One shot on target: forwards 53.5% (25,680 appearances), midfielders 31.4% (80,103), defenders 14.3% (68,963). Two or more shots on target: 19.8%, 7.7% and 1.5%.
- One goal: forwards 24.8%, midfielders 11.0%, defenders 4.2%. A forward who plays the full 90 minutes reaches one shot on target 59.6% of the time (9,466 appearances). A forward who plays 60 to 74 minutes reaches it 43.1% of the time (8,078).
- Fouls barely care about the shirt. One foul committed: forwards 67.2%, midfielders 64.3%, defenders 60.6%. Two fouls won: forwards 34.9%, midfielders 31.9%, defenders 18.7%.
- Tackles are a defender and midfielder market. Two or more tackles: defenders 42.8%, midfielders 42.6%, forwards 17.9%. One yellow card: defenders 17.8%, midfielders 16.1%, forwards 12.9%. One offside: forwards 31.9%, midfielders 10.7%, defenders 5.3%.
- A reliable forward is rare. Of 717 forwards with 15 or more of these appearances, the median hit one shot on target in 56% of them. 48 hit it in 80% or more. 13 defenders in 2,179 hit a yellow card in half their games. One hit it in 60%.
- Hot hit rates cool off. Forwards in the top fifth for one shot on target (79.0% over 12 or more games) hit 65.7% the next season. Midfielder two-tackle rates carried better (correlation 0.65) than forward shots on target (0.44) and defender yellow cards (0.35).
How we measured it
An appearance is a player on the pitch for at least 60 minutes in a league match. Of the 174,746 rows, 167,551 are marked as starts, 987 as not starts, and 6,208 have no flag. Players who leave before 60 minutes are excluded. What a substitute adds is in the substitute protection study.
Positions are DF, MF and FW. Goalkeepers are out. "1+" means at least 1. Shot, foul, tackle, card, goal and offside fields are filled on all 174,746 rows.
Leagues. The same 29 domestic leagues as the by-league articles, 2025/26 or calendar 2025, each with at least 150 matches. Named lists for the current season are in the shots on target cheat sheet and the fouls and cards cheat sheet. Venue effects are in the home versus away study. This piece does not split home and away.
Hit rates by position
| Line | Defender (68,963) | Midfielder (80,103) | Forward (25,680) |
|---|
| 1+ shot | 40.5% | 65.1% | 83.4% |
| 2+ shots | 12.4% | 34.3% | 57.1% |
| 3+ shots | 3.3% | 15.9% | 33.0% |
| 1+ shot on target | 14.3% | 31.4% | 53.5% |
| 2+ shots on target | 1.5% | 7.7% | 19.8% |
| 1+ goal | 4.2% | 11.0% | 24.8% |
| 1+ foul committed | 60.6% | 64.3% | 67.2% |
| 2+ fouls committed | 25.3% | 29.9% | 33.9% |
| 1+ foul won | 50.0% | 64.7% | 67.5% |
| 2+ fouls won | 18.7% | 31.9% | 34.9% |
| 1+ tackle | 74.0% | 72.9% | 48.4% |
| 2+ tackles | 42.8% | 42.6% | 17.9% |
| 3+ tackles | 21.3% | 21.7% | 6.0% |
| 1+ yellow card | 17.8% | 16.1% | 12.9% |
| 1+ offside | 5.3% | 10.7% | 31.9% |
| 2+ offsides | 0.3% | 1.6% | 8.4% |
Shots per appearance were 0.57 for defenders, 1.26 for midfielders and 2.04 for forwards. Shots on target per appearance were 0.16, 0.41 and 0.81.
The step from any shot to a shot on target is steep: forwards go from 83.4% to 53.5%, midfielders from 65.1% to 31.4%, defenders from 40.5% to 14.3%. Two shots on target is 19.8% for forwards and 1.5% for defenders. A goal lands in 24.8% of forward appearances, 11.0% of midfielders and 4.2% of defenders. The goalscorer guide is about how those markets are framed. Big-five forwards, 4,578 appearances, hit one shot on target 54.1% of the time and a goal 26.2% of the time, close to the all-league rates.
One foul committed sits between 60.6% and 67.2% at every position. Two fouls committed sit between 25.3% and 33.9%. Fouls won separate defenders (50.0% for one, 18.7% for two) from midfielders and forwards, who are close to each other (one foul won 64.7% and 67.5%). The fouls markets guide is where the referee and the opponent start to matter.
Two or more tackles landed in 42.8% of defender appearances and 42.6% of midfielder appearances. Three or more were 21.3% and 21.7%. Forwards drop to 17.9%. The tackles guide is about the role inside the position. The DF and MF labels share a base rate.
Yellow cards are 17.8%, 16.1% and 12.9%. Of 2,179 defenders with 15 or more appearances, the median was booked in 17.1%. 13 were booked in half their games. One reached 60%. None reached 70%. Offsides split the other way: forwards 31.9% for one and 8.4% for two, midfielders 10.7% and 1.6%, defenders 5.3% and 0.3%. Match totals are in the offsides by league study.
Minutes change the shot line, and a yellow can be why the player came off
The 60-minute cut still mixes a full match with an hour. Splitting it matters most for shots.
| Group | Appearances | 1+ shot on target | 2+ shots | 1+ yellow | 2+ tackles |
|---|
| Forward, 60–74 min | 8,078 | 43.1% | 43.5% | 10.3% | 13.8% |
| Forward, 90 min | 9,466 | 59.6% | 66.7% | 15.1% | 21.0% |
| Midfielder, 60–74 min | 19,099 | 27.6% | 28.8% | 14.7% | 31.0% |
| Midfielder, 90 min | 39,521 | 31.4% | 35.1% | 17.0% | 49.6% |
| Defender, 60–74 min | 5,709 | 11.1% | 9.0% | 21.4% | 35.7% |
| Defender, 90 min | 55,457 | 14.5% | 12.7% | 17.2% | 43.4% |
A forward who plays 90 minutes hits one shot on target 59.6% of the time, against 43.1% in a 60–74 minute appearance, and hits two shots 66.7% of the time against 43.5%. The blended 53.5% sits between those two shifts.
Defenders who play 60 to 74 minutes are booked 21.4% of the time, against 17.2% for defenders who play 90. A booking is a common reason a defender is substituted, so the higher rate in the shorter bucket is consistent with the card causing the exit. It is a weak reason to take the over on cards for a defender you expect to come off. Midfielder tackles scale more cleanly with minutes: 31.0% for two or more in a 60–74 minute appearance, 49.6% in a 90-minute one.
The league moves a forward's shots less than the position does
One shot on target for forwards, by league. The full list runs from 60.6% to 47.7%.
| League | Season | Forward appearances | 1+ shot on target |
|---|
| A-League Men | 2025/26 | 350 | 60.6% |
| La Liga | 2025/26 | 1,036 | 59.0% |
| Saudi Pro League | 2025/26 | 678 | 58.6% |
| MLS | 2025 | 1,501 | 58.4% |
| Eredivisie | 2025/26 | 818 | 58.2% |
| Premier League | 2025/26 | 1,001 | 51.9% |
| Championship | 2025/26 | 1,387 | 51.8% |
| Serie A (Italy) | 2025/26 | 1,006 | 50.8% |
| Romanian Liga I | 2025/26 | 948 | 50.1% |
| J1 League | 2025 | 877 | 48.9% |
| League Two | 2025/26 | 1,532 | 47.7% |
| All 29 leagues | – | 25,680 | 53.5% |
La Liga forwards hit 59.0% on 1,036 appearances. Premier League forwards hit 51.9%. League Two, the bottom, is 47.7% on 1,532 appearances. That league gap is about 11 points. The gap from a forward to a defender is about 39. Midfielder two-tackle rates run from 49.6% in Argentina (3,306 appearances) to 37.4% in the Ekstraklasa (2,568). Defender yellow cards run from 22.3% in Argentina (3,224) to 9.7% in the J1 League (2,618).
Most players are near the average, and the hot ones cool off
Among players with at least 15 appearances of 60 minutes or more in this season:
| Group | Players | Median personal rate | At least 60% | At least 80% |
|---|
| Forward, 1+ shot on target | 717 | 56% | 306 | 48 |
| Midfielder, 2+ tackles | 2,386 | 42.9% | 521 | 75 |
| Defender, 1+ yellow card | 2,179 | 17.1% | 1 | 0 |
48 of 717 forwards hit a shot on target in 80% or more of appearances. The median forward is a 56% shot. The named cheat sheet lists the current names. A price that assumes your forward is one of the 48 is assuming a player in the top 7% of the position.
The same players do not keep an extreme rate. Matching players with at least 12 appearances in both the previous season and this one:
| Group | Players | Correlation | Top fifth then | Top fifth next |
|---|
| Forward, 1+ shot on target | 464 | 0.44 | 79.0% | 65.7% |
| Forward, 1+ foul committed | 464 | 0.60 | 90.1% | 80.0% |
| Midfielder, 2+ tackles | 1,571 | 0.65 | 74.8% | 61.2% |
| Defender, 1+ yellow card | 1,480 | 0.35 | 33.0% | 23.2% |
Fouls (correlation 0.60) and tackles (0.65) carry more than shots on target (0.44), and shots on target carry more than cards (0.35). The bottom fifth of defender card rates rose from 5.4% to 12.8%. That matches the low repeat rates in the which stats are predictable piece.
What this means for betting
A forward's one shot on target is a 53.5% event in this cut, about 59.6% over 90 minutes and 43.1% over 60 to 74. The no-margin prices of those three are roughly 1.87, 1.68 and 2.32. The shots on target analysis is the longer walk through a player's own history against this baseline. StatPair does not store the bookmaker's line.
One foul committed is 60.6% to 67.2% at every position. Two tackles are 42.8% for defenders and 42.6% for midfielders. A price that moves only because the team sheet says DF or MF is trading the label. Tackles (0.65) and fouls (0.60) are the stats that keep more of a player's own rate into the next season.
48 of 717 forwards cleared 80% for one shot on target, and last season's top fifth fell from 79.0% to 65.7%. A defender card is a 17.8% event overall, 9.7% in Japan and 22.3% in Argentina. The top fifth of defender card rates fell from 33.0% to 23.2%.
Method notes
- 60 minutes or more, outfield positions only, 174,746 appearances. Of those, 167,551 are flagged as starts, 987 as not starts, and 6,208 have no start flag. Goalkeepers are excluded.
- Same 29 leagues and the same season window as the by-league articles. A partial 2026/27 season is not included.
- Personal rates need 15 appearances in the latest season. Season-to-season rates need 12 in each season, same player, same position group. The "fifth" is one fifth of that matched list.
- The 60–74 and 90-minute buckets are slices of the same appearances. A yellow card can be the reason a defender is in the shorter bucket. That row is descriptive, and it is a bad causal story about "short appearances draw more cards".
- No home/away split in this file. See the venue study linked above. No odds, no xG, no expected tackles.
How to check this with StatPair
- Note the position baseline from the first table, and the minutes row if you have a view on whether the player finishes the match.
- Open the player and read their own hit rate over a long sample, with the minutes and home/away filters on. AI projections on StatPair cover shots, fouls, cards and corners. They are a projection to compare with this baseline, not a price.
- Use Trends Finder to see whether an 8-from-10 run is the player's normal rate or a spike. The top-fifth column is what a spike did next season.
- For tackles, compare the player with both the defender row and the midfielder row. They are the same number. The difference you want is the player, not the position.
Try StatPair free for 7 days → · Most reliable shooters, 2026/27 → · Shots on target: how to read a player's numbers →
FAQ
Q: How often does a forward have a shot on target?
A: In 53.5% of 25,680 forward appearances of 60 minutes or more. Midfielders hit one in 31.4% of 80,103 appearances and defenders in 14.3% of 68,963. Forwards who played 90 minutes hit one in 59.6% of 9,466 appearances. Forwards who played 60 to 74 minutes hit one in 43.1% of 8,078.
Q: Do defenders commit fewer fouls than forwards?
A: Only slightly. Defenders committed at least one foul in 60.6% of appearances, midfielders in 64.3% and forwards in 67.2%. Two or more fouls committed were 25.3%, 29.9% and 33.9%. Position moves fouls by a few points and moves shots on target by about 39 points.
Q: Who gets more tackles, defenders or midfielders?
A: They land two or more tackles at almost the same rate: 42.8% of defender appearances and 42.6% of midfielder appearances. Three or more tackles were 21.3% and 21.7%. Forwards were at 17.9% for two or more. A full-90 midfielder reached two tackles 49.6% of the time.
Q: How often is a player booked?
A: Defenders received a yellow card in 17.8% of these appearances, midfielders in 16.1% and forwards in 12.9%. Of 2,179 defenders with 15 or more appearances, 13 were booked in at least half their games and one in at least 60%. The top fifth of defenders by card rate fell from 33.0% one season to 23.2% the next.
Q: Do high hit rates carry into the next season?
A: Partly, and they shrink. Across 464 forwards with 12 or more appearances in both seasons, the one-shot-on-target rate correlated at 0.44, and the top fifth fell from 79.0% to 65.7%. Midfielder two-tackle rates correlated at 0.65. Defender yellow-card rates correlated at 0.35.
Bottom line
Give a forward an hour and they have a shot on target in about half of matches, a goal in a quarter, and a foul in two thirds. Give a defender the same hour and the shot on target falls to 14%, the goal to 4%, and the foul stays near 61%. Two tackles are a 43% event for both defenders and midfielders. The players who live at 80% are a few dozen forwards, not a position, and last year's 79% group came back at 66%. Start from the position and the minutes. Then go and look at the player.