You back a striker for a shot on target, he's taken off after 65 minutes without one, and the bet is dead. Several UK bookmakers now pass the bet to the player who comes on instead. How much is that actually worth?
We took 162,030 outfield starts, paired 71,574 substituted starters with the player who replaced them, and compared hit rates with and without the transfer.
Data: StatPair match database · 30 domestic leagues (big five plus 25 others) · 8,271 matches, April 2025 to October 2026 · bookmaker rules from official help pages, accessed 15 October 2026 · Updated: 15 October 2026
TL;DR
- Forwards are substituted in 67.4% of their starts, midfielders in 55.5% and defenders in 23.1%, with almost no difference between the big five and other leagues. 78.3% of substituted outfield starters go off after the hour.
- Before kick-off, sub cover lifts a forward's 1+ shot on target from 51.3% to 59.0% (23,499 starts). Anytime goal goes from 23.4% to 27.3%.
- When a forward is taken off, his replacement roughly gives back what he'd have done: 1+ shot on target goes from 46.5% on his own stats to 57.8% with the replacement, against an estimated 56.9% had he stayed on.
- Biggest relative gains: cards and multi-count lines on forwards. "To be carded" rises from 12.4% to 16.6% (+34%). Smallest: defenders, whose 1+ foul rate gains 4.9%.
- Like-for-like matters. Only 48.4% of substituted forwards are replaced by a forward. That swap adds 14.4 points to 1+ shot on target; a defender coming on adds 3.5.
- Worked example: for an average forward's 1+ shot on target, a protected price about 13% lower than an unprotected one is break-even.
How we measured it
The sample. League matches from 30 domestic competitions with reliable line-up data (2025/26, 2026/27 to date, and the 2025 and 2026 calendar-year leagues), excluding extra-time matches. We kept a team's match only if every player could be assigned to a side, it had exactly 11 starters, and the players' summed shots and fouls matched the official team totals: 16,203 team-matches (2,842 in the big five).
Substitution times. There are no event minutes and minutes are capped at 90. A starter's exit minute is his minutes played; a substitute's entry minute is inferred as 90 minus his minutes. In 95.6% of team-matches the two lists mirror each other exactly.
Pairing. A starter leaving at minute X is paired with the substitute entering at minute X; for same-minute changes (53.4% of substituted starters) we matched by position first. That paired 98.2% of substituted starters. Checked against published line-ups for Forest v Sunderland and Spurs v Wolves (27 September 2025), all 10 single changes were right and 6 of 10 same-minute changes. Using single-change pairs only moves our gains by at most 1.7 points.
Hit rates. We compare (a) starters who played 90, (b) substituted starters on their own stats (what a normal bet pays) and (c) the substituted starter plus his replacement (what sub cover pays). We also estimate what he'd have done if he'd stayed on, from his own per-minute rate in other matches.
What the bookmakers actually offer
| Bookmaker | Feature | Key rules |
|---|
| Paddy Power | Super Sub | Automatic, no opt-in; pre-match and in-play; singles, multiples, Bet Builders. Fouls, fouled, tackles, shots, shots on target, goalscorer, assists, cards. English leagues, Champions League and others. 90 minutes only. |
| Sky Bet | Super Sub | Automatic, no opt-in; pre-match and in-play. Big five leagues, EFL, Scottish Premiership and more. |
| William Hill | Impact Sub | Automatic, no opt-in, original odds. Your player's actions carry over. Sent off = loser. Only cards shown on the pitch count. |
| bet365 | Sub On Play On | Pre-match only, "with no change in odds". Bet Builders qualify. Not if the outcome was already decided or you cashed out first. |
- No like-for-like rule. The bet passes to whoever comes on, per Opta (Paddy Power, Sky Bet, William Hill) or Podium (bet365), and moves again if the substitute is substituted. Paddy Power, Sky Bet and William Hill transfer it even to a goalkeeper.
- Pre-kick-off injuries aren't covered. A player who takes no part is normally void under standard rules (Sky Bet, Paddy Power); bet365 voids anytime scorer bets on players who don't start.
- Red cards: William Hill says the bet loses because nobody replaces him. The other pages don't say.
- Odds: no page says protected bets are priced lower. We have no odds data, so we can't tell whether base prices allow for it.
- We found no bet365 feature called "Sub Swap".
Step 1: who gets taken off, and when
| Outfield starters | Substituted | Off before 70' | Half-time or earlier | 46-60' | 61-75' | 76-89' |
|---|
| Defenders (62,166) | 23.1% | 10.4% | 17.9% | 9.1% | 32.1% | 40.9% |
| Midfielders (75,274) | 55.5% | 24.6% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 39.4% | 39.6% |
| Forwards (24,590) | 67.4% | 29.9% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 42.7% | 38.4% |
| All outfield (162,030) | 44.9% | 20.0% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 38.7% | 39.6% |
First two columns: share of all starts. Minute bands: share of substituted starters. 0.8% of outfield starters were sent off.
The average substituted outfield starter leaves at 69.75 minutes, so his replacement gets about 20 minutes of normal time. League tier barely matters: forwards were substituted in 68.4% of big five starts and 67.1% elsewhere.
Regular starters (four of the team's previous five) are safer, but not by much in attack. 19.4% of regular forwards were off before 70 minutes and only 41.9% played the full 90, against 7.4% off before 70 for regular defenders.
Step 2: what substitutes produce
| Per 90 minutes | Forwards, full 90 | Forwards off the bench | Midfielders, full 90 | Midfielders off the bench |
|---|
| Shots | 2.54 | 3.22 | 1.33 | 2.11 |
| Shots on target | 0.99 | 1.23 | 0.42 | 0.70 |
| Fouls committed | 1.30 | 2.13 | 1.18 | 1.78 |
| Yellow cards | 0.15 | 0.31 | 0.17 | 0.35 |
7,891 full-90 forwards, 18,196 forward substitute appearances, 32,977 full-90 midfielders, 37,442 midfield substitute appearances.
Substitutes look far busier per minute. Partly that's real: full-90 forwards take 54.5% of their shots and 71.4% of their yellow cards after half-time. Partly it's an artefact: minutes stop at 90, so a substitute credited with one minute may play five or more of stoppage time.
The count in the time available is still small. 41.2% of the players who replace a forward get 15 minutes or fewer. Forwards on for 1-15 minutes had a shot on target in 14.2% of 7,470 appearances; for 16-30 minutes, 26.3% of 7,550.
Step 3: what a transferred bet is worth
First, the substituted starters themselves, where sub cover kicks in:
| Position and line | Played 90 | Subbed: own stats | Subbed: + replacement | If he'd stayed on (est.) |
|---|
| FW 1+ shot | 89.2% | 77.7% | 87.7% | 87.1% |
| FW 1+ shot on target | 61.6% | 46.5% | 57.8% | 56.9% |
| FW anytime goal | 27.8% | 21.3% | 27.1% | 26.9% |
| FW to be carded | 14.8% | 10.7% | 16.9% | 14.0% |
| MF 1+ foul committed | 66.8% | 59.9% | 72.8% | 68.7% |
| DF 1+ tackle | 74.2% | 67.6% | 80.1% | 78.5% |
Played 90: 7,891 forwards, 32,977 midfielders, 47,150 defenders. Subbed and paired: 16,300 forwards, 41,052 midfielders, 14,071 defenders.
The replacement restores most of what the substitution took away, and for fouls and cards a bit more. Forwards' replacements averaged 0.231 shots on target in the remaining minutes, against 0.198 expected from the starter. Don't treat "played 90" as the benchmark: only about a third of starting forwards finish the match, and they are a selected group.
Before kick-off you don't know if your player will be taken off, so this is the table that matters for the bet slip:
| All starts, before kick-off | Without cover | With cover | Gain | Relative gain |
|---|
| FW 1+ shot | 81.3% | 88.1% | +6.8 pts | +8.4% |
| FW 2+ shots | 54.8% | 65.7% | +10.9 pts | +19.9% |
| FW 1+ shot on target | 51.3% | 59.0% | +7.6 pts | +14.9% |
| FW anytime goal | 23.4% | 27.3% | +3.9 pts | +16.8% |
| FW 2+ fouls committed | 31.2% | 41.0% | +9.8 pts | +31.3% |
| FW to be carded | 12.4% | 16.6% | +4.2 pts | +33.8% |
| MF 1+ shot on target | 30.3% | 35.9% | +5.6 pts | +18.4% |
| MF 1+ foul committed | 63.1% | 70.3% | +7.2 pts | +11.4% |
| DF 1+ foul committed | 59.8% | 62.7% | +2.9 pts | +4.9% |
Starts in the 15,483 team-matches where every substitution was paired: 23,499 forwards, 71,954 midfielders, 59,377 defenders. Gains calculated before rounding.
The forward gain is simple arithmetic: he's substituted 67.4% of the time, 53.5% of those have no shot on target yet, and the replacement then gets one 21.1% of the time, roughly 7.6 points. The big five (52.9% to 61.0%, 3,878 starts) and English leagues (50.2% to 57.3%, 4,397 starts) look the same.
Step 4: where it helps most, and least
Like-for-like swaps
| Forward replaced by | Share | Gain, 1+ shot on target | Gain, anytime goal | Replacement shots per 90 |
|---|
| Forward | 48.4% | +14.4 pts | +8.0 pts | 3.27 |
| Midfielder | 39.0% | +10.5 pts | +4.3 pts | 2.51 |
| Defender | 7.4% | +3.5 pts | +1.3 pts | 0.92 |
Single-change pairs only: 7,342 substituted forwards (3,556 replaced by a forward, 2,861 by a midfielder, 545 by a defender). Positions are season labels, so wingers can appear as midfielders or forwards.
For shot and goal props, a defender coming on for your striker makes the cover almost worthless.
Game state
Teams leading at half-time took off 42.2% of outfield starters in the second half (36.7% when trailing), and their changes were more defensive. For a forward taken off after half-time, the 1+ shot on target gain was +7.77 points when his team led at the break, +10.18 when level and +12.25 when trailing (2,202, 2,780 and 1,600 single-change pairs). Fouls go the other way: 2.16 per 90 from replacements when leading, 1.87 when trailing. Half-time score is only a proxy for the score at each change.
Cards, fouls and defenders
We expected cards to gain least. In points they do (+1.4 for defenders, +4.2 for forwards), but in relative terms they gain most: substitutes are booked at twice the per-minute rate of starters, and the base rate is low. Booked players also get taken off. 36.4% of midfielders booked in the first half were off before 70 minutes, against 23.0% of those not booked, so cover protects foul props against exactly that. Defenders gain least on everything, because only 23.1% are substituted.
Worked example: what is the protection worth?
Illustrative only. We have no odds data, and these are averages, not specific players.
| Average forward | Hit without cover | Hit with cover | Fair odds without | Fair odds with | Break-even price ratio |
|---|
| 1+ shot on target | 51.3% | 59.0% | 1.95 | 1.69 | 0.87 |
| Anytime goal | 23.4% | 27.3% | 4.27 | 3.66 | 0.86 |
| To be carded | 12.4% | 16.6% | 8.06 | 6.02 | 0.75 |
Say Bookmaker A offers 1.80 on a striker's 1+ shot on target with no cover, and Bookmaker B offers 1.65 with sub cover. For an average forward, A returns 0.513 × 1.80 − 1 = −7.7% and B returns 0.590 × 1.65 − 1 = −2.65%. The lower price is the better bet. B would need to drop to about 1.57 (1.80 × 0.87) before the cover stopped paying for itself. For a player who rarely comes off, the ratio moves towards 1. For how prop prices are built, see our guide.
What this means for betting
Treat cover as a price adjustment
For an average forward, cover is worth roughly a 13% better price on 1+ shot on target and 14% on anytime goal. Compare protected odds with the best unprotected price elsewhere using those ratios.
Back it on attackers who come off
The gain scales with how often your player is substituted. A forward taken off in most starts benefits far more than a full-90 regular, especially on volume lines like 2+ shots and shots on target.
Look at the bench and the likely game state
Cover pays best when a like-for-like attacker is on the bench and the team may be chasing. If the likely change is a defender to protect a lead, shot cover is worth little.
Fouls, cards and Bet Builders
Substitutes foul and get booked at high rates late on, so cover on foul markets and forwards' cards adds a lot relative to the base rate. Defenders' props gain only 4 to 5%. All four bookmakers apply the feature to Bet Builders, where a second chance on several attacking legs can add up (see our Bet Builder hit rates).
Sources and method notes
- Bookmaker pages (accessed 15 October 2026): Paddy Power Super Sub and football rules; Sky Bet Super Sub and general rules; William Hill Impact Sub and 2025/26 guide; bet365 Sub On Play On and goalscorer rules. Terms change; check the market icon.
- Pairing checks: Forest v Sunderland and Spurs v Wolves. Both errors were same-minute changes where the real swap crossed positions.
- Inferred minutes matched the official minute for changes during play; half-time changes show as 45, and changes at 90 minutes or later as 89. Substitutes' real time on the pitch is understated.
- Exclusions: 4,183 matches with a player we couldn't assign, 799 team-matches without 11 recorded starters, and extra-time matches. Sent-off starters aren't counted as substituted.
- Settlement: we add starter and replacement stats, as William Hill and bet365 describe for multi-count lines. Bench cards count in our data but not under William Hill's rules; they are rare.
- "If he'd stayed on" is a Poisson estimate from each player's other matches (450+ minutes). It ignores late-game intensity, so it probably understates the starter.
- No odds data, so the worked example is illustrative. StatPair doesn't provide xG.
How to check this with StatPair
- Open the player's match-by-match history and check how often he's taken off, and when.
- Use the half filters to see how much of his output comes after half-time.
- Check the likely replacement's match-by-match history for shots and fouls in short appearances.
- Use the opponent and home/away filters to judge whether his team will be chasing or protecting a lead.
- Find high-volume forwards with short minutes in the Trends Finder, save them in your Notebook, and ask the AI Analyzer for a pre-match read.
Try StatPair free for 7 days → · How bookmakers set player prop lines → · Goalscorer and player props →
FAQ
Q: What is Super Sub or sub cover in football betting?
A: It's a bookmaker feature that moves your player bet to the substitute who replaces him. Paddy Power and Sky Bet call it Super Sub, William Hill calls it Impact Sub and bet365 calls it Sub On Play On. It covers markets such as shots, shots on target, fouls, cards and goalscorer bets marked with the feature's icon.
Q: Is sub cover worth it for anytime goalscorer bets?
A: It helps, but less than for shot volume. For an average starting forward, the anytime goal hit rate rose from 23.4% to 27.3% with cover across 23,499 starts. That's worth roughly a 14% better price. For 1+ shot on target, the rate went from 51.3% to 59.0%.
Q: Does the replacement have to play the same position?
A: No. The bet goes to whoever comes on for your player, even a goalkeeper at Paddy Power, Sky Bet and William Hill. In our data, only 48.4% of substituted forwards were replaced by another forward. A forward-for-forward swap added 14.4 points to 1+ shot on target; a defender coming on added 3.5.
Q: What happens to a sub cover bet if my player is sent off?
A: William Hill states the bet is a loser, because no player replaces him. The other bookmakers' pages we read don't address red cards directly. Sub cover also doesn't help if your player is injured before kick-off; a player who takes no part is normally a void bet.
Q: Are odds lower on bets with substitute protection?
A: bet365 and William Hill say the odds don't change when the bet moves to the substitute, and none of the pages we read mentions a lower price. We have no odds data, so we can't say whether base prices allow for it. Our data suggests a protected price about 13% lower than an unprotected one is break-even for an average forward's 1+ shot on target.
Bottom line
Sub cover is worth having, especially on attackers. Two in three starting forwards are substituted, and their replacements roughly give back what the substitution took away, lifting a forward's 1+ shot on target from 51.3% to 59.0% and anytime goal from 23.4% to 27.3%. It's worth least for defenders, for teams protecting a lead and when a defender is the likely replacement. Treat it as a price adjustment of about 13% for an average forward.