Every August the same questions come back. Will the promoted side's style survive the step up? Should you back the favourites against them every week?
We tracked 90 promoted team-seasons across 19 European leagues: 42 complete seasons from 2025/26 and 48 still running in 2026/27. For 32 of them we also have the previous season in the division below, so we can see how the numbers translate.
Data: StatPair match database · 19 European leagues · 2024/25 and 2025/26 complete, 2026/27 to 11 October · 1,929 promoted team-matches · Updated: 13 October 2026
TL;DR
- The top flight is a brutal step. Promoted sides in the Premier League, La Liga and Serie A took 0.98 points per game in 2025/26, against 1.44 for everyone else. Four of the nine went straight back down.
- Their shot share collapses. The same nine teams had 56.7% of the shots in their lower league and 41.6% in the top flight.
- Last season's numbers don't travel. Lower-league points per game had no link with points in the new division (r = −0.05). Shot share after 10 matches predicted the final shot share at r = 0.86.
- All four relegated top-flight sides had under 37% of the shots after 10 games. All five survivors had 39.5% or more.
- Betting against them works only in the big leagues. Last season's top six beat promoted sides 68.6% of the time in the three big top flights, against 53.4% versus other teams. Elsewhere there was no extra edge.
- No goals bonanza, fewer player shots. Matches with a promoted side went Over 2.5 in 52.2% of games (53.0% for the rest). Players who stepped up with their club lost about 11% of their shots per 90.
How we measured it
A promoted team plays in a league this season but didn't last season. For the Premier League, Championship, League One, La Liga and Serie A, it must have played in the division below the year before; clubs relegated into the Championship or League One were excluded. We checked the lists against official tables.
For 14 other top flights (including the Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Eredivisie and Primeira Liga), we don't have the second division, so we have no prior-season stats for those promoted sides.
Each team was compared with the rest of its league in the same season. Shot share is a team's shots divided by all shots in its matches: 50% is an even game.
Per team per match, 2025/26:
| Stat | Top 3 flights: promoted (9 teams) | Top 3 flights: rest | EFL: promoted (7) | Other top flights: promoted (26) |
|---|
| Points per game | 0.98 | 1.44 | 1.30 (rest 1.38) | 1.08 (rest 1.42) |
| Goals for / against | 1.04 / 1.57 | 1.36 / 1.26 | 1.14 / 1.34 | 1.17 / 1.59 |
| Shots for / against | 10.52 / 14.76 | 12.76 / 12.01 | 11.83 / 12.39 | 11.41 / 13.96 |
| Shots on target for / against | 3.44 / 4.99 | 4.31 / 4.03 | 3.64 / 3.90 | 3.88 / 4.82 |
| Corners for / against | 3.82 / 5.34 | 4.92 / 4.65 | 4.83 / 5.03 | 4.33 / 5.34 |
| Fouls / yellow cards | 12.00 / 2.03 | 12.02 / 1.98 | 11.42 / 1.86 | 12.32 / 2.06 |
| Shot share | 41.6% | 51.5% | 48.9% | 45.0% |
Top 3 flights = Premier League, La Liga, Serie A (336 promoted team-matches). EFL = Championship and League One (319). Other top flights = 11 leagues (899).
The bigger the gap between divisions, the bigger the fall. EFL promoted sides were almost average; in the big three they took about two-thirds of a typical team's points and faced 4.2 more shots per game than they took. Fouls and yellow cards were in line with the league.
Last season's numbers don't travel
For the 16 promoted teams with lower-league data (team averages):
| Average per team | Top 3 flights (9): lower league → first season | All 16: lower league → first season |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.92 → 0.98 | 1.90 → 1.12 |
| Shot share | 56.7% → 41.6% | 56.6% → 44.8% |
| Shots for / against | 13.48 / 10.34 → 10.52 / 14.76 | 13.03 / 10.04 → 11.10 / 13.72 |
| Corners for | 5.13 → 3.82 | 5.15 → 4.26 |
A dominant promotion season told us very little. Lower-league points per game had no relationship with points in the new division (r = −0.05), and lower-league shot share predicted the new shot share only weakly (r = 0.35). Shot share after 10 matches in the new division predicted the final figure at r = 0.86.
Burnley are the clearest example. In the 2024/25 Championship they conceded 0.35 goals per game and took 2.17 points per game. In the Premier League their shot share was 35.8%, and they went down with 22 points. Leeds, with a 71.1% Championship shot share, kept 50.1% and finished 14th.
That's the opposite of our early-season stats study, where last season was the best guide for established teams.
| 2025/26 | Home points per game | Away points per game | Share of points at home | Away shot share |
|---|
| Top 3 flights: promoted | 1.22 | 0.74 | 61.9% | 36.3% |
| Top 3 flights: rest | 1.62 | 1.26 | 56.2% | 46.1% |
| Other top flights: promoted | 1.27 | 0.89 | 59.1% | 40.4% |
Promoted sides in the big three earned 61.9% of their points at home, against 56.2% for other teams. At home they kept about three-quarters of a normal team's points; away, under 60%, conceding 1.86 goals per game. More in our home and away stats guide.
The first 10 matches: honeymoon, then reality
| 2025/26 | Points per game: first 10 → rest | Shot share: first 10 → rest | Goals against: first 10 → rest |
|---|
| Top 3 flights: promoted | 1.13 → 0.92 | 39.9% → 42.2% | 1.43 → 1.62 |
| Top 3 flights: rest | 1.41 → 1.45 | 51.8% → 51.4% | 1.23 → 1.27 |
| EFL: promoted | 1.50 → 1.25 | 52.1% → 48.0% | 1.19 → 1.39 |
| Other top flights: promoted | 0.98 → 1.12 | 45.4% → 44.8% | 1.81 → 1.49 |
In the big three, promoted sides took points early that their shots didn't support (1.13 per game on 39.9% of the shots). Their shot share then improved, but points fell to 0.92: regression to the mean. In the other 11 top flights they started worse and improved, so "fade the fast start" isn't a law.
Early shot share was the best relegation warning
| 2025/26 promoted side | Points per game after 10 | Shot share after 10 | Final position |
|---|
| Burnley | 1.00 | 29.5% | 19th, relegated |
| Cremonese | 1.40 | 31.1% | 18th, relegated |
| Real Oviedo | 0.70 | 34.0% | 20th, relegated |
| Pisa | 0.60 | 36.9% | 20th, relegated |
| Levante | 0.90 | 39.5% | 16th |
| Sassuolo | 1.30 | 42.9% | 11th |
| Sunderland | 1.80 | 44.9% | 7th |
| Elche | 1.40 | 48.7% | 15th |
| Leeds United | 1.10 | 54.5% | 14th |
Final positions from the official 2025/26 tables.
Cremonese are the warning: after 10 games they matched Elche's 1.40 points per game, but on 31.1% of the shots against 48.7%. Cremonese went down; Elche stayed up.
Across all 108 team-seasons in those five leagues, shot share after 10 games predicted rest-of-season points as well as early points did (0.54 against 0.53). The counter-example: Port Vale had 58.9% of the shots after 10 League One games and were still relegated. Nine top-flight teams make a pattern, not a law.
Betting against them: favourites, totals and BTTS
| Last season's top six vs… | Matches | Win % | Win by 2+ | Their shots | Their corners |
|---|
| Promoted sides (top 3 flights) | 105 | 68.6% | 41.0% | 17.61 | 6.44 |
| Other teams (top 3 flights) | 382 | 53.4% | 28.0% | 14.66 | 5.85 |
| Promoted sides (other top flights) | 364 | 52.7% | 29.4% | 15.50 | 6.03 |
| Other teams (other top flights) | 1,089 | 57.7% | 32.5% | 15.30 | 5.78 |
"Other teams" = sides outside last season's top six.
In the big three, the gap is large: at home the top six won 75.5% of these games (53 matches), away 61.5% (52), with about three more shots than against other teams, which matters for team shots markets. Outside the big three there was no extra edge. In the EFL, last season's top six beat promoted sides 35.7% of the time (84 matches) and other teams 41.4%.
| 2025/26 matches | Matches | Goals per game | Over 2.5 | BTTS | Total corners |
|---|
| One promoted side | 1,390 | 2.69 | 52.2% | 54.5% | 9.66 |
| Promoted v promoted | 82 | 2.51 | 41.5% | 50.0% | 9.15 |
| No promoted side | 3,721 | 2.76 | 53.0% | 54.0% | 9.83 |
Promoted teams don't turn games into Overs: in the big three, their matches went Over 2.5 in 49.3% of cases (302 matches), against 50.4% for other games. See also our Over/Under goals analysis.
Players who stepped up: shots drop, fouls hold
We counted a player as a club's player if he appeared in five or more of its league matches (a sample of 60 all matched our player-team records), and compared players with 900+ minutes for the same promoted club in both seasons.
| Per 90: lower league → first season | Players | Shots | Shots on target | Fouls committed | Fouls won | Tackles |
|---|
| Top 3 flights: all | 61 | 1.12 → 1.00 | 0.38 → 0.32 | 1.13 → 1.06 | 1.13 → 1.14 | 1.43 → 1.51 |
| Top 3 flights: midfielders | 27 | 1.40 → 1.21 | 0.45 → 0.39 | 1.37 → 1.24 | 1.47 → 1.35 | 1.72 → 1.82 |
| EFL: all | 59 | 1.13 → 1.09 | 0.37 → 0.32 | 1.10 → 1.09 | 0.94 → 0.89 | 1.64 → 1.46 |
Players moving up to a top flight lost about 11% of their shots and 16% of their shots on target per 90; shots fell for 61% of them. Fouls fell only 6%, fouls won didn't change and tackles rose 6%.
Team shots fell more (22%), because only 47% of first-season minutes went to players with five or more league games for the club the year before. Individual rankings held: shots per 90 in the two seasons correlated at r = 0.90. Domenico Berardi, for example, went from 3.02 to 1.86 shots per 90 at Sassuolo.
Six to eight matches, to 11 October 2026. Early signals, not verdicts.
| Team | Matches | Points | Shot share | Shot share last season (lower league) |
|---|
| Coventry City (PL) | 6 | 6 | 36.1% | 58.1% |
| Ipswich Town (PL) | 6 | 9 | 41.1% | 58.8% |
| Hull City (PL) | 6 | 9 | 45.5% | 42.9% |
| Racing Santander (La Liga) | 8 | 8 | 42.0% | 52.3% |
| Málaga (La Liga) | 8 | 4 | 42.9% | 51.7% |
| Deportivo La Coruña (La Liga) | 8 | 10 | 47.4% | 50.4% |
| Frosinone (Serie A) | 6 | 10 | 45.1% | 54.3% |
| Venezia (Serie A) | 6 | 0 | 48.6% | 63.0% |
| Monza (Serie A) | 6 | 4 | 53.1% | 54.5% |
This year's nine average 1.01 points per game and 44.6% shot share. After six games last season, the 2025/26 nine averaged 1.11 points per game but only 37.4% of the shots. On shots, this class looks healthier.
- Coventry are the red flag: the only newcomer under 40%, facing 17.67 shots per game.
- Venezia and Monza look better than their points. Venezia's 38.8% share of shots on target is the weaker sign.
- Ipswich have 9 points on 41.1%, above last season's relegated sides but below four of the five survivors.
- Elsewhere: Bromley (33.2%, League One) and Elversberg (31.2%, Bundesliga) are well below the line.
What this means for betting
Price them off new-league shots, not last season
In the big three, start from about 10.5 shots for, 14.8 against and under 4 corners per game. After 10 games, check shot share: all four 2025/26 top-flight newcomers under 37% went down, and none above it did (nine teams). A side collecting points on a low shot share, like Cremonese last season, is one to oppose.
Back the big teams, but only in the big leagues
In the big three, last season's top six won 68.6% against promoted sides, 41.0% by two or more, and took 17.61 shots. That supports handicaps and favourites' shots and corners lines, especially when the promoted side is away. In the EFL and smaller top flights, the edge disappears. Their matches weren't higher-scoring, so don't add Overs on reputation.
Player props: trim shots, keep fouls
For players who came up with their club, cut lower-league shots per 90 by about 10-15% and shots on target by about 15-20%. Foul numbers travel. More in our fouls betting guide.
Method notes
- Promoted lists were checked against official tables and club announcements for the five leagues with lower-division data, the Bundesliga and Ligue 1. Other 2026/27 lists come from our data only.
- Final positions come from official tables; a few matches are missing in our data (15 in La Liga 2025/26).
- Polish, Croatian and Czech sides are only in the 2026/27 sample. Split-season leagues include their play-off rounds; promotion play-offs are excluded.
- Small samples: nine promoted sides in the big three, seven in the EFL. Player assignment could miscount a match or two after mid-season transfers.
- This is a descriptive study, not a causal model.
How to check this with StatPair
- Open a promoted side's match-by-match history and work out its shot share after 10 matches.
- Use the home/away filter to see how far their away numbers drop.
- Use the opponent filter to check the top sides' shots and corners against promoted teams.
- Use the Trends Finder for opposing players hitting shots lines against promoted sides, and add the newcomers to your Notebook for a 10-match check-in.
Try StatPair free for 7 days → · Early-season stats: signal vs noise → · Regression to the mean →
FAQ
Q: How often do newly promoted teams get relegated?
A: Of the nine teams promoted into the Premier League, La Liga and Serie A for 2025/26, four went straight back down: Burnley, Real Oviedo, Cremonese and Pisa. In the Championship and League One, one of seven was relegated (Port Vale).
Q: Should you bet against promoted teams?
A: Against the best sides in the biggest leagues, often yes. Last season's top six beat promoted teams 68.6% of the time in the Premier League, La Liga and Serie A, against 53.4% versus other teams. In the EFL and smaller top flights, there was no extra edge.
Q: Are matches involving promoted teams high-scoring?
A: No. In 2025/26, matches with one promoted side averaged 2.69 goals and went Over 2.5 in 52.2% of games, against 2.76 goals and 53.0% for other matches.
Q: Does a strong promotion season predict how a team does in the top flight?
A: Hardly. Across 16 promoted teams, lower-league points per game had no link with points in the new division (r = −0.05). Shot share after 10 matches in the new league predicted the final shot share at r = 0.86.
Q: Do players from promoted teams keep their shot numbers?
A: At a lower rate. Players with 900+ minutes in both seasons lost about 11% of their shots per 90 and 16% of their shots on target after moving up to a top flight. Fouls fell 6% and fouls won didn't change.
Bottom line
Promoted sides in the big top flights lose about 15 points of shot share and nearly a point per game against their promotion season. Price them off their new-league shot numbers, and treat a shot share under about 37% after 10 games as a serious relegation signal. Back the top sides against them in the big three, not in the EFL or smaller leagues. Don't expect extra goals, and trim shot props for players stepping up. For 2026/27, Coventry worry the numbers most; Venezia and Monza look better than their points.