Quick answer: 52.1% of 7,774 league matches across 24 leagues went over 2.5 goals in the 2025/26 season, with an average of 2.73 goals per match. That is fair odds of about 1.92 for over 2.5 and 2.09 for under. The highest-scoring leagues were the Bundesliga (63.4%), the Eredivisie (62.1%) and the Danish Superliga (60.4%). The lowest were Serie A (45.6%) and Romania's Liga I (45.8%).
This is the data table. For how to build a bet from it, see our over/under goals betting guide.
Data: StatPair match database · 24 domestic leagues, 2025/26 season (7,774 matches) · five calendar-year leagues, 2025 season (1,771 matches) · season-to-season check: 2024/25 · Updated: 25 October 2026
TL;DR
- Over 2.5 landed in 52.1% of 7,774 matches, over 1.5 in 76.0% and over 3.5 in 29.4%.
- Highest-scoring leagues: Bundesliga (3.23 goals, 63.4% over 2.5) and Eredivisie (3.19, 62.1%). Lowest: Serie A (2.42, 45.6%). Argentina's 2025 season was lower still (1.94, 31.1%).
- The most common total was two goals (23.9% of matches), just ahead of three (22.7%).
- Home teams scored 55.3% of the goals (1.51 per match against 1.22).
- The second half had 55.4% of the goals (1.47 against 1.18), and more goals than the first half in all 24 leagues.
- Team over 2.5 rates ranged from 26.5% to 93.9% (Kocaelispor to Bayern Munich), but extreme teams drifted back towards average the next season.
How we measured it
Over 2.5 means three or more goals in 90 minutes plus added time. We used domestic league matches only: no cups, super cups, friendlies or European competitions. Play-off or split rounds that belong to the league are included.
Leagues. Every league in the StatPair database with at least 150 recorded matches in its latest completed season, the same rule as our BTTS stats by league and team and corners tables. That gave 24 summer-to-spring leagues for 2025/26 and five calendar-year leagues for 2025, which we show separately.
Consistency check. Average goals and BTTS rates for every league match the BTTS article exactly, because they come from the same 7,774 matches.
Teams. Clubs with at least 30 league matches in 2025/26, which gave 403 teams. A team's over 2.5 rate is the share of its matches with three or more goals, whoever scored them.
Over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals % by league (2025/26)
Sorted by over 2.5. "0-0" is the share of goalless draws.
| League | Matches | Avg goals | Over 1.5 | Over 2.5 | Over 3.5 | 0-0 |
|---|
| Bundesliga | 303 | 3.23 | 83.5% | 63.4% | 42.9% | 4.0% |
| Eredivisie | 301 | 3.19 | 86.7% | 62.1% | 38.5% | 3.3% |
| Danish Superliga | 192 | 3.08 | 82.3% | 60.4% | 34.4% | 5.7% |
| A-League Men | 160 | 2.85 | 78.8% | 56.9% | 33.8% | 5.6% |
| Liga MX | 264 | 2.96 | 78.0% | 56.4% | 35.6% | 6.1% |
| Saudi Pro League | 268 | 2.97 | 78.7% | 54.9% | 35.1% | 5.2% |
| Premier League | 374 | 2.73 | 78.6% | 54.8% | 28.1% | 7.2% |
| Israeli Premier League | 236 | 2.97 | 77.5% | 54.7% | 37.3% | 8.9% |
| Scottish Premiership | 222 | 2.80 | 78.4% | 53.2% | 32.9% | 7.2% |
| Primeira Liga | 299 | 2.66 | 74.6% | 53.2% | 29.4% | 6.7% |
| Süper Lig | 298 | 2.65 | 76.2% | 53.0% | 27.2% | 9.1% |
| Ligue 1 | 300 | 2.81 | 72.7% | 52.7% | 32.3% | 7.3% |
| Ekstraklasa | 302 | 2.74 | 75.5% | 52.0% | 30.1% | 7.6% |
| League One | 551 | 2.63 | 72.4% | 51.0% | 27.9% | 6.0% |
| Segunda División | 460 | 2.63 | 71.5% | 50.2% | 26.7% | 8.3% |
| La Liga | 365 | 2.71 | 78.6% | 50.1% | 25.8% | 3.8% |
| Championship | 547 | 2.58 | 75.9% | 49.9% | 24.5% | 6.6% |
| Belgian Pro League | 300 | 2.68 | 76.0% | 49.7% | 26.7% | 7.7% |
| Greek Super League | 232 | 2.58 | 75.4% | 49.6% | 24.6% | 9.1% |
| HNL (Croatia) | 176 | 2.66 | 79.5% | 48.3% | 28.4% | 8.0% |
| Serie B (Italy) | 388 | 2.55 | 75.5% | 48.2% | 25.5% | 7.5% |
| League Two | 555 | 2.57 | 72.4% | 48.1% | 27.0% | 6.7% |
| Liga I (Romania) | 308 | 2.53 | 70.8% | 45.8% | 26.9% | 7.1% |
| Serie A (Italy) | 373 | 2.42 | 70.0% | 45.6% | 21.7% | 9.7% |
| All 24 leagues | 7,774 | 2.73 | 76.0% | 52.1% | 29.4% | 6.8% |
- The over 2.5 spread is about 18 points, from 63.4% to 45.6%. In fair odds that is 1.58 in the Bundesliga against 2.19 in Serie A, with the Premier League at 1.82.
- Average goals and over 2.5 don't rank the same way. Ligue 1 averaged more goals than Primeira Liga (2.81 against 2.66) but a slightly lower over 2.5 rate: 16.0% of Ligue 1 matches had five or more goals, which lifts the average more than the over 2.5 rate.
- La Liga is the odd one out on over 1.5. Only 3.8% of its matches ended 0-0, so over 1.5 landed in 78.6%, but 15.3% ended 1-1 and over 2.5 sat at 50.1%.
- Over 3.5 separates leagues more than over 2.5. It ranged from 42.9% in the Bundesliga to 21.7% in Serie A, about twice as likely in one as the other.
Calendar-year leagues (2025 season)
| League | Matches | Avg goals | Over 1.5 | Over 2.5 | Over 3.5 | 0-0 |
|---|
| MLS | 437 | 2.97 | 76.4% | 57.9% | 35.7% | 7.1% |
| Brasileirão Série A | 309 | 2.49 | 71.2% | 45.0% | 24.3% | 7.8% |
| J1 League | 379 | 2.40 | 65.4% | 44.9% | 21.1% | 8.4% |
| Brazil Serie B | 212 | 2.16 | 67.0% | 37.7% | 15.1% | 9.0% |
| Liga Profesional Argentina | 434 | 1.94 | 59.9% | 31.1% | 12.4% | 15.4% |
Argentina was the lowest-scoring of the 29 leagues in this study: fewer than one match in three went over 2.5, and 15.4% finished 0-0. Our Brazil Serie B data covers May to November 2025 only, so treat it as a partial season.
Across the 7,774 matches (median three goals, standard deviation 1.63):
| Total goals | Matches | Share |
|---|
| 0 | 531 | 6.8% |
| 1 | 1,334 | 17.2% |
| 2 | 1,861 | 23.9% |
| 3 | 1,766 | 22.7% |
| 4 | 1,224 | 15.7% |
| 5 | 637 | 8.2% |
| 6 | 264 | 3.4% |
| 7 or more | 157 | 2.0% |
- Over 2.5 is a coin flip at the margin. 46.6% of matches finished with exactly two or three goals, so one goal decides almost half of all over/under 2.5 bets.
- The most common scorelines were 1-1 (12.3%), 1-0 (9.9%) and 2-1 (9.0%).
- Draws rarely go over. Over 2.5 landed in 61.9% of home wins and 59.8% of away wins, but only 26.7% of draws (2-2 or higher).
The highest total was 10 goals, in five matches, including Heracles Almelo 8-2 PEC Zwolle.
Home vs away goals
Home teams scored 1.51 goals per match and away teams 1.22, so 55.3% of goals came from the home side. The home team scored two or more in 43.6% of matches and three or more in 19.7%; for away teams those figures were 34.5% and 12.2%.
The home share was highest in Serie B (Italy) and La Liga (both 58.0%) and lowest in Serie A (52.2%). Serie A home teams averaged only 1.26 goals, the lowest of the 24 leagues, a big part of why it is the under league.
First-half vs second-half goals
These figures use the 7,174 matches where our team goal records add up to the final score (see method notes).
| Market (24 leagues) | First half | Second half |
|---|
| Average goals | 1.18 | 1.47 |
| Over 0.5 | 69.6% | 77.7% |
| Over 1.5 | 33.3% | 44.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 11.3% | 17.5% |
The second half had more goals than the first in 43.7% of matches, the first half in 29.7%, and they were level in 26.6%. The second half was busier in all 24 leagues.
First-half goals ranged from 1.44 in the Danish Superliga and 1.42 in the Bundesliga to 1.01 in Serie A. First-half over 1.5 landed in 43.0% of Bundesliga matches and 26.8% of Serie A matches.
Over 2.5 by goals at half-time
| Goals at half-time | Matches | Over 2.5 at full time | Over 3.5 at full time |
|---|
| 0 | 2,184 | 15.9% | 4.3% |
| 1 | 2,604 | 45.5% | 19.3% |
| 2 | 1,573 | 79.4% | 44.7% |
| 3 or more | 813 | 100% | 83.3% |
At 0-0, over 2.5 landed in only 15.9% of matches, below the roughly 20% that a simple Poisson model gives. With one goal at the break it was 45.5%, and with two, 79.4%. Our half-time score study breaks this down by score.
Highest and lowest over 2.5 teams in 2025/26
Teams with at least 30 league matches. "Home" and "Away" are the over 2.5 rates in home and away games.
Highest over 2.5 %
| Team (league) | Matches | Over 2.5 | Home | Away |
|---|
| Bayern Munich (Bundesliga) | 33 | 93.9% | 100% | 88.2% |
| PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie) | 34 | 85.3% | 94.1% | 76.5% |
| NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie) | 33 | 75.8% | 87.5% | 64.7% |
| Barcelona (La Liga) | 36 | 75.0% | 82.4% | 68.4% |
| Racing Santander (Segunda) | 41 | 73.2% | 81.0% | 65.0% |
| Lechia Gdańsk (Ekstraklasa) | 33 | 72.7% | 62.5% | 82.4% |
| FC Copenhagen (Superliga) | 33 | 72.7% | 62.5% | 82.4% |
Lowest over 2.5 %
| Team (league) | Matches | Over 2.5 | Home | Away |
|---|
| Kocaelispor (Süper Lig) | 34 | 26.5% | 23.5% | 29.4% |
| Getafe (La Liga) | 37 | 27.0% | 21.1% | 33.3% |
| Parma (Serie A) | 37 | 27.0% | 31.6% | 22.2% |
| Petrolul Ploiești (Liga I) | 36 | 27.8% | 29.4% | 26.3% |
| NK Osijek (HNL) | 34 | 29.4% | 11.8% | 47.1% |
| Angers (Ligue 1) | 33 | 30.3% | 23.5% | 37.5% |
| Burgos (Segunda) | 42 | 31.0% | 19.0% | 42.9% |
Home and away splits rest on 15 to 21 games each, so treat big gaps with care. VfB Stuttgart went over 2.5 in every away league game but in only 47.1% at home.
Big five leagues and the Championship
| League | Highest over 2.5 % | Lowest over 2.5 % |
|---|
| Premier League | Newcastle 64.9%, Chelsea 63.9%, Manchester City 63.2% | Sunderland, Wolves and Everton 44.7% |
| La Liga | Barcelona 75.0%, Mallorca 63.9%, Villarreal 59.5% | Getafe 27.0%, Real Oviedo 38.9%, Rayo Vallecano 38.9% |
| Serie A | Torino 63.2%, Sassuolo 56.8%, Inter 55.3% | Parma 27.0%, Lazio 31.6%, Atalanta 33.3% |
| Bundesliga | Bayern Munich 93.9%, Stuttgart 71.9%, Hoffenheim 70.6% | Mönchengladbach 51.5%, Werder Bremen 52.9%, Mainz 52.9% |
| Ligue 1 | Rennes 70.6%, Monaco 64.7%, Lens 64.7% | Angers 30.3%, Le Havre 32.4%, Lille 36.4% |
| Championship | Southampton 63.0%, Coventry 62.2%, QPR 62.2% | Blackburn 39.1%, Charlton 39.1%, Stoke 42.2% |
The Bundesliga's lowest over 2.5 team (Mönchengladbach, 51.5%) was still above the Serie A league average. Across all 403 teams, 8.7% were at 65% or more and 4.7% at 35% or below.
Are over 2.5 rates stable from season to season?
League rates are fairly stable. For 22 leagues with 150+ matches in both 2024/25 and 2025/26, the correlation between the two seasons' over 2.5 rates was 0.80, and the average change was 3.0 points. The overall rate moved from 51.1% (7,585 matches) to 52.1%. Some leagues did move: Liga I rose from 38.9% to 45.8%, the Scottish Premiership fell from 60.5% to 53.2%.
Team rates are much less stable. For 304 teams with 30+ matches in the same league in both seasons, the correlation was 0.40:
| Team group (by 2024/25 rate) | Teams | Over 2.5 in 2024/25 | Over 2.5 in 2025/26 |
|---|
| Top fifth | 60 | 67.0% | 57.1% |
| Middle fifth | 61 | 51.9% | 51.9% |
| Bottom fifth | 61 | 35.5% | 47.3% |
The most extreme teams kept only about a third of their distance from the average. That is regression to the mean at work.
Early-season caution: in the 1,996 matches played in these 24 leagues in 2026/27 so far (17 July to 24 October 2026), 56.5% went over 2.5 and the average was 2.92 goals. Wait for a bigger sample before treating that as a new normal.
What this means for betting
- Start from the league row. The same 1.80 over 2.5 price is short in Serie A (fair 2.19) and generous in the Bundesliga (fair 1.58). Our top five leagues comparison covers the other markets in those leagues.
- Then move to the teams, but shrink. A team at 70% over 2.5 is more likely to land near 60% next. Keep about a third of the gap between the team and its league.
- Mind the 1-1 and 2-1 margin. Almost half of matches end with exactly two or three goals. Leagues with many 1-1 draws (La Liga, Serie B, the Championship) sit lower on over 2.5 than their goal average suggests.
- Over 3.5 is where leagues differ most. It is twice as common in the Bundesliga as in Serie A, so league selection matters more there than on 2.5.
- Price it yourself. Fair odds = 100 ÷ probability; our guide to how betting odds work explains removing the bookmaker's margin.
Method notes
- Source: StatPair match database. Final scores cover 90 minutes plus added time.
- Excluded: friendlies, super cups, Club World Cup, domestic cups and European or international competitions.
- Missing matches: a few per league (for example 374 of 380 Premier League games).
- Half-time figures: team first-half goals don't always include own goals, so team totals fell short of the final score in 600 of 7,774 matches. Half-by-half figures use the 7,174 complete matches, where the average was 2.64 goals and over 2.5 landed in 50.1%, so they are slightly conservative.
- Seasons: 2025/26 for summer-to-spring leagues; 2025 for MLS, Argentina, the J1 League and Brazil's top two divisions. Ekstraklasa and HNL had too little 2024/25 data for the season-to-season check.
- No xG. StatPair doesn't provide xG; this study uses goals only.
How to check this with StatPair
- Note the league baseline from the table above.
- Use the home/away filter to see the home side's goals at home and the away side's goals away.
- Compare the season view with the last 10 matches. If they disagree, lean towards the season.
- Use the first-half filter before betting first-half goals lines.
- Use the Trends Finder to find teams whose matches regularly go over or under.
Try StatPair free for 7 days → · Over/under goals guide → · BTTS stats by league →
FAQ
Q: What percentage of football matches go over 2.5 goals?
A: In our 2025/26 data, 52.1% of 7,774 league matches across 24 leagues went over 2.5 goals. Over 1.5 landed in 76.0% and over 3.5 in 29.4%. That is fair odds of about 1.92 for over 2.5 and 2.09 for under 2.5.
Q: Which league has the most over 2.5 goals?
A: In 2025/26, the Bundesliga (63.4% of 303 matches, 3.23 goals per match), followed by the Eredivisie (62.1%) and the Danish Superliga (60.4%). Serie A was lowest of the 24 leagues at 45.6%, and Argentina's 2025 season was lower still at 31.1%.
Q: What is the average number of goals per football match?
A: 2.73 across 7,774 league matches in 2025/26: 1.51 for the home team and 1.22 for the away team. The most common total was two goals (23.9% of matches), and the median was three.
Q: Are there more goals in the first or second half?
A: The second half. Across 7,174 matches with complete half-time data, the first half averaged 1.18 goals and the second half 1.47, and the second half was busier in all 24 leagues.
Q: Which teams have the highest over 2.5 percentage?
A: Among 403 teams with 30+ league matches in 2025/26, Bayern Munich (93.9%), PSV Eindhoven (85.3%), NEC Nijmegen (75.8%) and Barcelona (75.0%) led. Kocaelispor (26.5%), Getafe and Parma (both 27.0%) were lowest.
Bottom line
Just over half of league matches (52.1%) went over 2.5 goals in 2025/26, from 63.4% in the Bundesliga to 45.6% in Serie A. League rates are stable enough to use as a baseline; team rates are not, and the extremes drift back towards average the following season. Start from the league row, add a third of what the team numbers suggest, turn it into fair odds and bet only when the price beats it.