17-Leg Superbet Acca: PLN 1,770,901.73 and a 1-in-179 Price

On 13 October 2026, at 23:28, a Superbet customer listed as Piotr S. placed a 17-fold football accumulator. Thirteen days later Paris Saint-Germain beat Olympique Lyon 2-0, the last selection settled, and Superbet paid PLN 1,770,901.73. iGaming Polska, iGaming Express and Kanał Sportowy all reported that figure. It is the largest single-ticket payout in Superbet's history in Poland.

The 17 prices multiply to 179.079, a 1 in 179 chance if every price was fair. Below, that product is split into the stake, the Polish tax, the SuperBonus and the cash-out offers, then set next to the hit rate of short favourites in our own odds sample.

Data: Superbet coupon for Piotr S., placed 13 October 2026, 23:28, stake PLN 10,000, combined odds 179.07, 17 football selections, 150 copies · payout, bonus and cash-out figures from iGaming Polska (26 October 2026), iGaming Express (27 October 2026) and Kanał Sportowy · SuperBonus rules from Superbet Help · 12% stake tax and 10% tax on winnings as described by TVN Eurosport · short-price hit rates from our bookmaker margin study, 1,752 top-five-league matches in 2024/25 · Updated: 27 October 2026

TL;DR

• Paid: PLN 1,770,901.73 from a PLN 10,000 stake. The PLN 8,800 in the press is the same stake after the 12% gaming tax.
• SuperBonus was PLN 391,773.72, exactly 25% of the profit on the net stake. Ten of the 17 prices were 1.35 or higher, which is the tier that bonus uses. The other seven won, and they did not raise the percentage.
• The prices imply 0.558%, or 1 in 179. Breaking even on this payout needs a win more often than 1 in 177. At fair odds the tax and the bonus leave an expected loss of about PLN 111 per ticket.
• Fifteen of the 17 prices were under 1.50. In our 2024/25 sample those prices won 75.7% of the time against 76.0% implied (−0.6% at level stakes, n = 367). Applied to all 17 legs, the expectation on this ticket is about −11%.
• Last cash out: PLN 908,468.75, 29.7% below the payout divided by PSG's 1.37. With three matches left the offer was PLN 548,308.79, about 33% below the same comparison. 150 accounts copied the coupon, each at whatever price was still open.

How we measured it

This is one settled ticket. The złoty amounts are the coupon, the three match reports, or the product of those figures.

Prices. The 17 decimals multiply to 179.079. The slip shows 179.07. iGaming Express reported 179.08.

Stake. The slip shows PLN 10,000 and the reports say PLN 8,800. Bookmakers in Poland withhold 12% gaming tax from the stake, and 10,000 × 0.88 = 8,800. The odds multiply the net stake.

Bonus. Prices below 1.35 stay on the coupon and stay out of the SuperBonus count. The cap on a bonus ticket is PLN 2,000,000. Ten prices were 1.35 or higher. A 25% uplift on the profit, the rate in the published SuperBonus table for ten qualifying selections, matches PLN 391,773.72.

Payout. A flat 10% of the pre-tax return lands within one grosz of PLN 1,770,901.73. The PLN 2,280 exemption in the tax guide does not fit this settlement.

Chance. Implied probability is 1 divided by the combined odds. The other rows in the probability table apply our short-price result, or a flat percentage shaved off every leg. We do not have the other side of these markets, so those rows are illustrations.

The 17 selections

Scores for Vitória, Freiburg and PSG are from the match reports. Senny Mayulu (72') and Mika Godts (84') scored the PSG goals. The other scores are the ones on the settled coupon.

Seven prices sit under 1.35: 1.22, 1.30, 1.18, 1.28, 1.21, 1.30 and 1.17. Multiplied on their own they come to 4.41, about a 1 in 4.4 shot. The other ten come to 40.62, about 1 in 41. Together they are 179.08.

SuperBonus ignores those seven. Drop them, keep the same net stake on the other ten, and the same 25% bonus and 10% tax pay about PLN 400,000.

The public coupon view showed 150 copies (Arkadiusz Ł. and 149 others) and a 63.1k counter next to that copy count.

How PLN 10,000 became PLN 1,770,901.73

The published payout is PLN 1,770,901.73. The one-grosz gap is rounding on the combined odds.

The bonus line matches the published PLN 391,773.72. Taking it off the paid figure produces the PLN 1.38 million some reports called the win without the bonus. That mixes a pre-tax bonus with a post-tax payout. Before the bonus and before income tax, the return was PLN 1,575,894.87. At fair odds the same tax and bonus leave about −PLN 111 (−1.1%) per ticket. The next section drops the fair-odds assumption.

What 179.08 means as a probability

The last three rows divide each implied probability by 1.03, 1.04 or 1.05 and multiply. They are a sensitivity check. To break even you need the ticket to win more often than 1 in 177.

The second row is the one grounded in our sample. In the 2024/25 top five leagues, Bet365's 1X2 prices under 1.50 (367 prices, from 1,752 matches) won 75.7% of the time against a 76.0% implied probability, a level-stakes return of −0.6%. Fifteen of these 17 prices are in that band. Apply −0.6% to every leg, treat them as independent, and 0.994 to the power of 17 is 0.903. Through this ticket's tax and bonus, that is about −PLN 1,070 per PLN 10,000.

The 3% to 5% rows put the whole overround on the backed selection. On a short 1X2 price the margin sits mostly on the draw and the away win: in the same sample, prices of 7.00 and longer returned −38.5%, while prices under 1.50 won almost exactly as often as they implied. A 17-fold is a long shot because the probabilities multiply. The accumulator guide shows that compounding, and the margin study is the single-leg version.

Mbappé to score at 1.67, Real Madrid's handicap against Sevilla at 1.69, City-PSG over 2.5 at 1.45 and Vitória over 0.5 team goals at 1.17 are not two-way match results. Their margin is hidden, because the other side of the book is not on the coupon.

The cash out was about 30% below the remaining price

Piotr S. could have closed the ticket early. The published offers were:

• PLN 548,308.79 with Vitória, Bayern and PSG still open (iGaming Polska).
• PLN 908,468.75 with only PSG-Lyon left (iGaming Express).

The last price was 1.37. Divide the final payout by 1.37 and a cash out with no extra margin is PLN 1,292,629. The offer of 908,469 was 29.7% below that. He declined it, PSG won 2-0, and the paid amount was PLN 862,432.98 higher than that offer, which is the gap iGaming Express reported.

With three matches left the remaining prices were 1.17, 1.35 and 1.37, a combined 2.16. The same no-extra-margin comparison against the final payout is about PLN 818,000. The offer of 548,309 was 33% below it.

Holding paid because the remaining legs won. The offer was a buyback below the bookmaker's own remaining price.

Copying the coupon was a different bet

One hundred and fifty accounts copied the slip. A copy placed on 13 October, before anything had settled, faced the same 17-leg price. A copy placed on 25 October, with Bayern and PSG left, was a short double. A copy placed on the afternoon of PSG-Lyon was a single at 1.37, shown as a share of somebody else's record.

The screen does not show when those 150 copies were placed, or for how much. A public coupon changes price every time a leg settles. Following the visible winner, and treating the open legs as a formality, is the bias in the psychology guide.

What this means for betting

The price was 1 in 179 before any margin. The expectation of tickets built the same way, using the −0.6% short-price return from 367 prices, is a loss of about a tenth of the stake after this tax and bonus. In the bankroll guide, a stake of this size belongs on a bet whose usual result, a total loss, is an acceptable one.

The seven prices under 1.35 did two jobs. They cut the chance from about 1 in 41 to 1 in 179, and they left the SuperBonus at the ten-selection rate of 25%.

Price the legs that are not a match result on their own number. A scorer prop rests on shots and shots on target. A goals total rests on a rate, and the over 2.5 by league study is the base rate. A copied coupon inherits the prices still open, not the original 179.08.

Method notes

• One ticket. The probabilities are this coupon's prices, not a hit rate across many 17-folds.
• Prices are the decimals on the settled coupon. 179.079 rounds to 179.07 on the slip and 179.08 in one report. The last three scores come from iGaming Polska and iGaming Express. Earlier scores come from the coupon.
• Tax. The 12% and 10% rates are the ones in the TVN Eurosport guide. They are used because PLN 8,800 and a flat 10% reproduce the published wording and the payout within one grosz. This is arithmetic, not tax advice. The PLN 2,280 exemption does not fit the paid figure.
• SuperBonus. 25% of the profit on PLN 8,800 equals PLN 391,773.72. Superbet's help page confirms the 1.35 cutoff and the PLN 2,000,000 cap. The tier (ten qualifying selections = 25%) is Goal's February 2025 table of the revised bonus.
• The −0.6% row applies a 1X2 result (Bet365, 2024/25, prices under 1.50, n = 367) to all 17 legs, including two prices above 1.50 and markets that are not 1X2. Legs are treated as independent. Same-night correlation is not estimated.
• The 3%, 4% and 5% rows put the entire margin on the backed selection. For short 1X2 prices that overstates the damage. Use them as a bound.
• Cash out. The comparison is the final payout divided by the prices still open. Tax on a cash out, and the bookmaker's remaining liability, are not public. The 150 copies and the 63.1k counter are the public coupon view. Stake and timing of each copy are unknown.

How to check this with StatPair

StatPair does not price match results, goal totals or accumulators, and it does not calculate the expected value of a coupon. The free bookmaker margin calculator is a separate tool: it needs a price for every outcome in one market.

1. For a scorer selection such as Mbappé at 1.67, open the player and read shots and shots on target over the last 10+ matches, with the home/away and opponent filters. The goalscorer markets guide explains why shot volume is the part that repeats.
2. For a goals total such as City-PSG over 2.5, use team shots as the volume check and the league base rate from the over 2.5 study. AI projections in StatPair cover shots, fouls, cards and corners.
3. Where a market has a price for every outcome, compare your hit rate with the no-vig probability from the margin calculator. A one-sided scorer price has no book to add up.

Try StatPair free for 7 days → · Accumulator strategy → · Bookmaker margin by market →

FAQ

Q: Did a Polish bettor win PLN 1.77 million on one Superbet coupon?
A: Superbet settled the ticket as won, and iGaming Polska, iGaming Express and Kanał Sportowy reported a payout of PLN 1,770,901.73. The customer is identified publicly as Piotr S. The slip shows a stake of PLN 10,000 at combined odds of 179.07, placed on 13 October 2026.

Q: Why do reports say the stake was PLN 8,800 when the slip shows PLN 10,000?
A: PLN 10,000 left the wallet. Polish bookmakers withhold 12% gaming tax from the stake, so the odds multiply PLN 8,800. The reports quoted the net stake. The slip shows the gross stake.

Q: What chance did the 17 prices imply?
A: Multiplied, the prices come to 179.079, which is a 0.558% chance, or 1 in 179, if you take them at face value. Breaking even on the PLN 1,770,901.73 payout needs a win more often than 1 in 177. In our 2024/25 sample, short prices under 1.50 won almost exactly that often (75.7% against 76.0% implied). Applying that small gap to all 17 legs puts the expectation near −11% of the stake.

Q: How much of the payout was SuperBonus?
A: PLN 391,773.72, which is 25% of the profit on the PLN 8,800 net stake. Ten selections were priced at 1.35 or higher, and those are the ones that count toward the bonus. The seven shorter prices won and multiplied the odds, and they did not increase the percentage.

Q: How far below the final payout was the cash out?
A: With only PSG left, the published offer was PLN 908,468.75. Dividing the final payout by PSG's price of 1.37 gives PLN 1,292,629, so the offer was 29.7% below that comparison. With three matches left the offer was PLN 548,308.79, about 33% below the same comparison.

Bottom line

Piotr S. took a price of 1 in 179, declined PLN 908,468.75, and was paid PLN 1,770,901.73. The stake, the 12% gaming tax, the 25% SuperBonus and the 10% tax on the return meet that payout to the nearest grosz. Fifteen of the 17 prices were under 1.50, where our 2024/25 sample shows favourites winning within half a point of their price. Stacked seventeen times, that half a point is an expected loss of about a tenth of the stake. The 150 copies were later bets, at the prices still open.