Quick answer: in 13,355 league matches, the most common score was 1-1 (12.3%), then 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.0%). 3-0 to either side happened 6.1% of the time, about once in 16 matches. To calculate a scoreline's chance, estimate each team's expected goals, use the Poisson formula to get the chance of each team scoring 0, 1, 2, 3 and so on, and multiply the two. Do that for every score and you have a correct score matrix.
For strategy (how many scores to cover, staking), read our correct score betting strategy guide next.
Data: StatPair match database · 13,355 league matches in 19 European leagues · 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons (12 July 2024 to 20 June 2026) · Updated: 20 October 2026
TL;DR
- 1-1 is the most common score (12.3%), then 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.5%), 1-2 (7.5%) and 0-0 (7.1%).
- The top five scores cover only 46.5% of matches; the top ten cover 75.2%.
- 3-0 happened in 6.1% of matches (3.9% home 3-0, 2.2% away 0-3). Strong favourites won 3-0 in 6.8% of their matches.
- The textbook Poisson model is off in both directions. It predicted 8.3% 0-0s (actual 7.1%) but only 10.7% 1-1s (actual 12.3%) and 4.2% 2-2s (actual 5.6%).
- Simple fix: pull each team's attack and defence halfway back to the league average. That brought 0-0 to 7.2% predicted against 7.1% actual.
How we measured it
The matches. Every league match in the StatPair database for 2024/25 and 2025/26 in 19 European leagues: the top four English divisions, the top two in Spain and Italy, the Bundesliga, Ligue 1, the Eredivisie, Primeira Liga and the top flights of Belgium, Turkey, Scotland, Greece, Denmark, Romania and Israel. No cups, European games or friendlies. That gave 13,355 matches. Scores are written home team first: 3-0 is a home win, 0-3 an away win.
The Poisson test. For every match we built the standard model (attack strength × defence strength × league average, from home and away records), leaving the match itself out, and compared the predicted chance of each score with how often it happened.
How often every scoreline happens
The correct score percentage for every result from 0-0 to 3-3:
| Home goals | Away 0 | Away 1 | Away 2 | Away 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home 0 | 0-0: 7.1% | 0-1: 7.5% | 0-2: 5.1% | 0-3: 2.2% |
| Home 1 | 1-0: 10.3% | 1-1: 12.3% | 1-2: 7.5% | 1-3: 2.6% |
| Home 2 | 2-0: 6.6% | 2-1: 9.0% | 2-2: 5.6% | 2-3: 2.0% |
| Home 3 | 3-0: 3.9% | 3-1: 4.2% | 3-2: 2.7% | 3-3: 1.2% |
13,355 league matches, 2024/25 and 2025/26. Average 2.69 goals per match (1.48 home, 1.21 away).
These 16 scores covered 89.7% of all matches. The rest, the "any other score" bucket on most bookmakers, looked like this:
| Score group | Share of matches | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| Home team scores 4+ (away 3 or fewer) | 6.6% | 4-0 and 4-1: 1.6% each · 4-2: 0.9% · 4-3: 0.4% · 5+ goals: 2.1% |
| Away team scores 4+ (home 3 or fewer) | 3.5% | 0-4 and 1-4: 0.9% each · 2-4: 0.4% · 0-5: 0.3% |
| Both teams score 4+ | 0.1% | 19 matches in two seasons |
Home teams won 43.3%, away teams 30.4%. The most common scores were 1-1 (1,641 matches), 1-0 (1,371), 2-1 (1,197), 0-1 (1,005) and 1-2 (996). Backing 1-1 in every match would win about one bet in eight, the best any fixed scoreline can do.
How often does 3-0 happen?
The home side won 3-0 in 525 matches (3.9%) and the away side won 0-3 in 294 (2.2%): 6.1% together, roughly 1 match in 16. Other big-win scores, either side: 3-1 6.8%, 3-2 4.7%, 4-2 1.3%, 5-0 0.9%. A 3-0 needs a three-goal win, a clean sheet and no fourth goal.
Draw scorelines
Of the 3,511 draws (26.3% of matches), 46.7% finished 1-1, 27.1% 0-0, 21.5% 2-2 and 4.7% 3-3 or higher. Even when a match ends level, it is 0-0 only about a quarter of the time.
By league
Leagues differ a lot. Here are the main scores in eight big leagues.
| League (matches) | Goals per match | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3-0 either side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League (753) | 2.83 | 5.7% | 12.2% | 7.8% |
| La Liga (744) | 2.66 | 4.7% | 15.1% | 6.2% |
| Serie A (753) | 2.49 | 8.5% | 11.8% | 6.5% |
| Bundesliga (609) | 3.18 | 5.6% | 10.0% | 5.1% |
| Ligue 1 (604) | 2.90 | 6.0% | 10.3% | 6.1% |
| Championship (1,104) | 2.52 | 7.2% | 14.5% | 5.3% |
| Eredivisie (610) | 3.09 | 3.8% | 11.6% | 6.7% |
| Primeira Liga (605) | 2.61 | 6.4% | 11.2% | 8.6% |
1-0 was 12.6% of La Liga matches but only 6.4% in the Bundesliga, where 17.4% of matches had a side scoring four or more (6.8% in Serie A). League averages are a starting point; the two teams matter more.
By favourite strength
StatPair has no bookmaker odds, so we sorted matches by the model's win probability for the favourite. Scores are written favourite first.
| Match type (matches) | Most common scores | Favourite wins 3-0 | Favourite scores 4+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strong favourite, model 60%+ (3,711) | 1-0: 11.4% · 2-1: 10.8% · 2-0: 10.1% · 1-1: 9.5% | 6.8% | 13.7% |
| Clear favourite, 45-60% (5,312) | 1-1: 12.9% · 1-0: 11.1% · 2-1: 10.2% · 2-0: 7.7% | 4.3% | 6.9% |
| Close match, under 45% (4,332) | 1-1: 14.0% · 1-0: 10.5% · 2-1: 9.2% · 0-1: 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.6% |
Even with a strong favourite, 1-1 happened almost one match in ten. And the model gave strong favourites a 70.2% average chance, but they won 62.9%. More on that below.
Likely scorelines when you expect lots of goals. In the 2,544 matches where the model expected 3.2 goals or more, 61.0% went over 2.5, yet the most common score was still 1-1 (10.3%), then 2-1 (9.0%). A strong "over" spreads probability across many scores. For goals markets, see our over/under goals guide.
How to calculate correct score probability (step by step)
The correct score prediction formula, with a worked example: Arsenal at home to Chelsea, using real 2025/26 Premier League records.
Step 1: league averages
In 2025/26, Premier League home teams scored 1.52 goals per match and away teams 1.21 (374 matches).
Step 2: attack and defence strength
Divide each team's average by the league average, using home records for the home team and away records for the away team.
- Arsenal home attack: 39 goals in 18 games = 2.17 per game. 2.17 ÷ 1.52 = 1.42.
- Chelsea away defence: conceded 23 in 17 = 1.35. 1.35 ÷ 1.52 = 0.89.
- Chelsea away attack: 29 in 17 = 1.71. 1.71 ÷ 1.21 = 1.41.
- Arsenal home defence: conceded 8 in 18 = 0.44. 0.44 ÷ 1.21 = 0.37.
Step 3: expected goals
Expected goals = attack strength × opponent's defence strength × league average.
- Arsenal: 1.42 × 0.89 × 1.52 = 1.92 goals
- Chelsea: 1.41 × 0.37 × 1.21 = 0.63 goals
These come from real goals, not xG. If you have xG from another site, you can use that instead.
Step 4: the Poisson formula
The chance of a team scoring exactly k goals, when it is expected to score λ (lambda) goals:
P(k goals) = (λ^k × e^−λ) ÷ k!
e is 2.718 and k! means k × (k−1) × ... × 1 (so 3! = 6). In Excel or Google Sheets: =POISSON.DIST(k, λ, FALSE).
Arsenal scoring exactly 2: (1.92² × e^−1.92) ÷ 2 = (3.69 × 0.147) ÷ 2 = 27.0%. For every goal count, Arsenal: 0 goals 14.6%, 1 goal 28.1%, 2 goals 27.0%, 3 goals 17.3%, 4 goals 8.3%. Chelsea: 53.3%, 33.5%, 10.5%, 2.2%.
Step 5: build the correct score matrix
Multiply the home chance by the away chance for each pair. For 2-0: 27.0% × 53.3% = 14.4%.
| Arsenal goals | Chelsea 0 | Chelsea 1 | Chelsea 2 | Chelsea 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 15.0% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 14.4% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 9.2% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 4.4% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
This grid covers 95.0% of outcomes; the rest is "any other score". Adding cells gives the other markets: Arsenal win 68.2%, draw 20.5%, Chelsea win 11.3%, over 2.5 goals 46.9%, both teams to score 39.9%. To skip the maths, try the free correct score / xG calculator. For a spreadsheet version, see our guide to building a Poisson betting model in Excel.
Step 6: turn probability into fair odds
Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. In this match: 1-0 15.0% (fair odds 6.67), 2-0 14.4% (6.94), 1-1 9.4% (10.61), 3-0 9.2% (10.82), 2-1 9.1% (11.04) and 0-0 7.8% (12.83).
Step 7: compare with the bookmaker
Open the correct score market on 1xBet, SportyBet, Betika or a UK site. Suppose 2-0 is priced at 7.50 (a made-up price). The implied chance is 1 ÷ 7.50 = 13.3%; your model says 14.4%. Expected return per unit staked: 0.144 × 7.50 − 1 = +8%. At 6.00 (implied 16.7%) you would skip it. More on implied probability and margin in betting odds explained.
Before you trust that +8%, read the next section.