Quick answer: about 40% of league matches are won by a single goal. In 9,545 matches across 29 leagues, the final margin was exactly one goal 39.7% of the time, exactly two goals 20.2% of the time, and three or more 13.6% of the time. The other 26.4% were draws. Among matches that produced a winner, 54.0% were one-goal games.
That split is the whole of a home -1 handicap before anyone looks at a price. The home side won by two or more in 21.2% of matches (the line wins), won by exactly one in 22.5% (the line pushes), and failed to win in the rest. A thrashing did not set up the next match: teams took 1.51 points per game after winning by three or more, and 1.44 after winning by one.
Data: StatPair full-time scores · 29 domestic leagues · 2025/26, or the 2025 calendar season · 9,545 league matches, the same set as the home win study · Updated: 31 October 2026
TL;DR
- One-goal games: 39.7% of 9,545 matches (3,794). Two-goal margins: 20.2% (1,929). Three or more: 13.6% (1,300). Draws: 26.4% (2,522).
- Home -1 would have won 21.2% of matches and pushed 22.5%. Away -1 would have won 12.6%. These are score frequencies. StatPair does not store handicap odds.
- The most common scorelines were 1-1 (12.3%), 1-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.6%) and 1-2 (7.4%). The 1-1 share matches the 12.3% in our correct score frequency study on a wider set of matches.
- Leagues: J1 League had a one-goal margin in 47.5% of 379 matches. Croatia's HNL had one in 29.5% of 176, and the highest share of wins by two or more (43.8%).
- Higher-scoring leagues have fewer one-goal games. Across the 29 leagues, goals per match and the one-goal share correlated at -0.48. Goals per match and the share won by two or more correlated at 0.73.
- The last margin fades immediately. Next-match points were 1.51 after a win by 3+ (1,249 team-matches) and 1.44 after a win by one (3,708). After a loss by 3+ they were 1.21, against 1.32 after a loss by one.
- Parma won 11 of 37 Serie A matches and all 11 were by one goal. Barcelona won by two or more in 61.1% of 36 league matches.
How we measured it
Margin is the absolute difference between the full-time scores, including added time. A 2-1 and a 1-0 are both one-goal games. A 3-0 is a three-goal game. Draws have a margin of zero.
Home -1, described as a score. Asian handicap -1 wins when that team wins by two or more, returns the stake when that team wins by exactly one, and loses otherwise. This article counts those three outcomes. It does not say whether a bookmaker's price was fair. The Asian handicap guide explains how the lines settle. The numbers here are the frequencies those lines would have faced in this sample.
Sample. The same 29 leagues, same seasons, same 9,545 matches as the home-win table. On the 24 summer-to-spring leagues alone (7,774 matches) the one-goal share is 39.3% and the draw rate is 26.1%, the draw figure from the draw study.
How matches finish, by league
Sorted by the share of matches decided by exactly one goal.
| League | Matches | Goals | Draw | By 1 | By 2 | By 3+ | Home -1 wins | Home -1 pushes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J1 League | 379 | 2.40 | 25.3% | 47.5% | 16.1% | 11.1% | 17.7% | 26.6% |
| Brazil Serie B | 212 | 2.16 | 29.2% | 45.8% | 20.8% | 4.2% | 19.3% | 26.9% |
| Segunda División | 460 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 44.6% | 18.9% | 11.5% | 18.9% | 25.9% |
| League One | 551 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 43.6% | 17.2% | 14.2% | 19.6% | 26.9% |
| Romanian Liga I | 308 | 2.53 | 26.9% | 42.5% | 19.2% | 11.4% | 20.1% | 24.4% |
| League Two | 555 | 2.57 | 25.0% | 42.0% | 21.4% | 11.5% | 18.4% | 23.6% |
| Championship | 547 | 2.58 | 26.5% | 41.7% | 20.8% | 11.0% | 18.3% | 23.6% |
| La Liga | 365 | 2.71 | 24.7% | 41.6% | 21.4% | 12.3% | 22.5% | 25.8% |
| Serie A (Italy) | 373 | 2.42 | 26.3% | 41.6% | 19.6% | 12.6% | 16.9% | 21.4% |
| A-League Men | 160 | 2.85 | 27.5% | 40.6% | 15.6% | 16.3% | 18.1% | 19.4% |
| Argentina Liga Profesional | 434 | 1.94 | 31.8% | 40.3% | 19.1% | 8.8% | 18.4% | 22.8% |
| Belgian Pro League | 300 | 2.68 | 25.0% | 40.3% | 22.7% | 12.0% | 21.0% | 20.3% |
| Liga MX | 264 | 2.96 | 26.1% | 40.2% | 21.6% | 12.1% | 23.9% | 20.8% |
| Brasileirão Série A | 309 | 2.49 | 26.5% | 40.1% | 21.0% | 12.3% | 22.7% | 27.8% |
| Danish Superliga | 192 | 3.08 | 23.4% | 40.1% | 19.3% | 17.2% | 19.3% | 21.9% |
| Ligue 1 | 300 | 2.81 | 24.3% | 39.3% | 19.3% | 17.0% | 25.0% | 22.0% |
| Süper Lig | 298 | 2.65 | 28.5% | 38.3% | 17.8% | 15.4% | 19.1% | 22.8% |
| Ekstraklasa | 302 | 2.74 | 27.2% | 38.1% | 19.9% | 14.9% | 23.8% | 21.9% |
| Saudi Pro League | 268 | 2.97 | 22.8% | 38.1% | 21.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 22.4% |
| MLS | 437 | 2.97 | 25.6% | 38.0% | 22.2% | 14.2% | 22.2% | 21.7% |
| Premier League | 374 | 2.73 | 27.5% | 38.0% | 19.8% | 14.7% | 23.8% | 19.3% |
| Primeira Liga | 299 | 2.66 | 27.8% | 36.8% | 18.1% | 17.4% | 22.1% | 17.7% |
| Serie B (Italy) | 388 | 2.55 | 30.9% | 36.6% | 20.6% | 11.9% | 22.2% | 22.7% |
| Eredivisie | 301 | 3.19 | 25.9% | 34.9% | 21.6% | 17.6% | 25.6% | 19.6% |
| Greek Super League | 232 | 2.58 | 28.0% | 34.9% | 17.7% | 19.4% | 22.8% | 18.1% |
| Bundesliga | 303 | 3.23 | 24.8% | 34.7% | 21.5% | 19.1% | 24.8% | 18.8% |
| Scottish Premiership | 222 | 2.80 | 27.0% | 33.8% | 24.8% | 14.4% | 26.6% | 17.1% |
| Israeli Ligat Ha'al | 236 | 2.97 | 25.0% | 33.1% | 21.6% | 20.3% | 24.6% | 16.1% |
| Croatian HNL | 176 | 2.66 | 26.7% | 29.5% | 30.7% | 13.1% | 25.0% | 21.0% |
| All 29 leagues | 9,545 | 2.67 | 26.4% | 39.7% | 20.2% | 13.6% | 21.2% | 22.5% |
"Home -1 wins" is a home victory by two or more. "Home -1 pushes" is a home victory by exactly one. The rest of the matches lose a home -1.
Japan's J1 League finished by one goal in 47.5% of 379 matches, and 63.6% of its decisive games were one-goal games. Home -1 there won 17.7% and pushed 26.6%. Brazil's Serie B (45.8% of 212) and the Segunda División (44.6% of 460) are next. The Premier League is just under the average: 38.0% one-goal games, home -1 winning 23.8% and pushing 19.3%, from 374 matches.
Croatia's HNL had a one-goal margin in 29.5% of 176 matches and a win by two or more in 43.8%. Scotland had the highest home -1 win rate, 26.6% of 222. The Bundesliga, at 3.23 goals a match, was decided by three or more in 19.1%. Goals per match correlated at -0.48 with the one-goal share and at +0.73 with wins by two or more. Brazil's Serie B averaged 2.16 goals and was decided by three or more only 4.2% of the time. Argentina averaged 1.94, with draws at 31.8%.
The scorelines inside a one-goal game
Most one-goal matches are not 3-2 thrillers. They are 1-0 and 2-1.
| Score | Matches | Share of 9,545 |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 1,175 | 12.3% |
| 1-0 | 1,002 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 869 | 9.1% |
| 0-1 | 726 | 7.6% |
| 1-2 | 708 | 7.4% |
| 0-0 | 704 | 7.4% |
| 2-0 | 663 | 6.9% |
| 2-2 | 520 | 5.4% |
1-0 and 0-1 together are 18.1% of matches (1,728). 2-1 and 1-2 together are 16.5% (1,577). 2-0, the smallest margin that wins a home -1 outright, is 6.9%. 1-1, 1-0 and 2-1 together are 31.9%, which is where a correct score shortlist starts. Home wins by one goal (2,147, 22.5%) outnumber away wins by one (1,647, 17.3%). Home wins by three or more (863, 9.0%) are about double away wins by three or more (437, 4.6%).