Draw Percentage by League 2025/26: How Often Matches End Level (7,774 Matches Analysed)

Quick answer: 26.1% of 7,774 league matches across 24 leagues ended in a draw in the 2025/26 season. That's roughly one match in four, or fair odds of about 3.83 for the draw. Almost half of all draws (47.2%) finished 1-1.

Leagues differ, but by less than you might think: from 30.9% in Italy's Serie B down to 22.8% in the Saudi Pro League. The bigger questions for bettors are which teams really draw a lot, whether evenly matched games draw more, and whether a team on a run of draws is likely to draw again. We tested all three.

Data: StatPair match database · 24 domestic leagues, 2025/26 season (7,774 matches) · five calendar-year leagues, 2025 season (1,771 matches) · matchup and streak tests: 21,684 league matches in 29 leagues, July 2024 to 28 October 2026 · Updated: 29 October 2026

TL;DR

• The draw rate was 26.1% across 7,774 matches: 6.8% finished 0-0, 12.3% 1-1 and 7.0% 2-2 or higher.
• Highest: Serie B (Italy) 30.9%, Süper Lig 28.5%, Greek Super League 28.0%. Lowest: Saudi Pro League 22.8%, Danish Superliga 23.4%, Ligue 1 24.3%. Argentina's Liga Profesional (2025) drew 31.8%.
• Low-scoring leagues draw more, but loosely (correlation −0.46 between goals per game and draw rate).
• Close matchups draw more. When the two teams' points per game were within 0.25 of each other, 28.1% of matches were drawn; with a gap of 1.5 or more, 15.1%.
• Team draw rates barely repeat. Across 304 teams, last season's draw rate correlated at just 0.10 with this season's. The fifth of teams that drew most in 2024/25 (37.2%) drew 26.1% the following season.
• Draw streaks don't carry on. After two draws in a row, teams drew 27.5% of their next matches (2,100 cases), against 27.1% expected.

How we measured it

Draw means level after 90 minutes plus added time in a league match. Cups, play-off finals with extra time, European competitions and friendlies are excluded.

League tables. We used every domestic league in the StatPair database with at least 150 matches in its most recent completed season: 24 leagues for 2025/26 and five calendar-year leagues (MLS, Argentina, Japan and the two Brazilian divisions) for 2025. These are the same matches as our BTTS by league and over 2.5 goals by league tables.

Teams. Teams with at least 30 league matches in their latest completed season: 470 across all 29 leagues.

Matchups and streaks. For every league match from July 2024 to 28 October 2026, we worked out each team's points per game in that league season before kick-off and its run of results. Matchup tests need both teams to have played at least six league games (16,841 matches). Streak tests look at the team's previous league matches in the same season. Because draw rates differ by league and by how close the teams are, every streak group is compared with an expected rate built from the league-season's draw rate and the points gap between the two sides.

Draw percentage by league (2025/26)

0-0, 1-1 and 2-2+ are shares of all matches, so they add up to the draw rate. Some leagues include play-off rounds recorded under the league.

• The whole range is eight points, from 22.8% to 30.9%. Most leagues (20 of 24) sit between 24% and 28%.
• The big five averaged 25.6% (1,715 matches). The Premier League had the most draws among them (27.5%) and Ligue 1 the fewest (24.3%).
• The type of draw differs more than the rate. Serie A had as many 0-0s as 1-1s (9.7% each), while La Liga had only 3.8% goalless draws but 15.3% at 1-1. The Eredivisie had more 2-2+ draws (12.0%) than 0-0s (3.3%).

Calendar-year leagues (2025 season)

Argentina stands out: almost one match in three was drawn, and almost half of those draws were 0-0. It's the lowest-scoring league we track, at 1.94 goals per match.

1-1 is the typical draw

Of the roughly 2,030 draws in the 24-league sample, 47.2% finished 1-1, 26.1% were 0-0, 21.8% were 2-2 and 4.9% were 3-3 or higher. So a draw bet is, more than anything, a bet on 1-1. If you're pricing draws from a goals model, our guide to correct score probability shows how the draw splits into individual scorelines.

Goals and draws are linked, but loosely. Across the 24 leagues, the correlation between goals per match and draw rate was −0.46. Serie A (2.42 goals, 26.3% draws) and Argentina (1.94, 31.8%) fit the pattern; the Bundesliga (3.23 goals) still drew 24.8%, only a point below average, because its draws were simply higher-scoring.

League draw rates move from year to year. Comparing 2024/25 with 2025/26 for the 22 leagues with both seasons, the correlation was only 0.33. The Süper Lig went from 23.4% to 28.5%, Ligue 1 from 20.4% to 24.3% and the Saudi Pro League from 18.6% to 22.8%, while Romania's Liga I fell from 30.9% to 26.9%. The overall rate hardly moved (26.0% against 26.1%). A league's draw rate is a reasonable baseline, not a fixed property.

Teams that draw the most and the least

Latest completed season, at least 30 league matches, all 29 leagues (470 teams).

Most draws

Fewest draws

Barcelona drew just 1 of 36 La Liga matches (2.8%), followed by Al Nassr (2 of 32), Celtic (3 of 37), Roma (3 of 36), PSV Eindhoven (3 of 34) and Club Brugge (4 of 39). The low-draw list is mostly dominant sides. Only 14 of the 470 teams drew 40% or more, and 25 drew less than 15%.

But team draw rates barely repeat

This is the most important result in the article. For the 304 teams with 30+ matches in the same league in both of their last two completed seasons, the correlation between one season's draw rate and the next was 0.10. That's close to none.

Both groups ended up almost exactly at the average. Even within one season, a team's draw rate in its odd-numbered matches told you nothing about its draw rate in its even-numbered matches (correlation 0.01 across 470 teams). The exceptions are dominant teams like Barcelona and PSG, which draw rarely because they win so often, not because of a draw "habit".

For comparison, goals conceded per game correlated at 0.55 and points per game at 0.67 over the same pairs of seasons. Strength repeats; draw-proneness doesn't.

Do evenly matched teams draw more?

Yes. We grouped 16,841 matches by the gap in season-to-date points per game between the two teams.

The effect is real but gradual. Most matches fall in the first three rows, where the draw rate only moves from 28.1% to 26.3%. The draw becomes clearly unlikely only when one side is far stronger.

Home advantage shifts the sweet spot. Draws peaked at 29.0% (2,740 matches) when the away team was slightly stronger (0.2 to 0.5 points per game better), because home advantage makes that a true coin flip. When the home side was 1.0+ points per game better, only 17.8% of matches were drawn.

Among close matchups, two strong sides (both 1.6+ points per game) drew 29.2% of 905 matches and two weak sides (both under 1.1) 26.6% of 885.

Does a run of draws continue?

No. Here is the next-match draw rate after different runs, with the expected rate for the same leagues and matchups.

Gaps of up to about two points between actual and expected are within normal chance at these sample sizes.

Teams on draw runs do draw slightly more often than average, but only because they tend to play in high-draw leagues and close matchups, and the expected rate already captures that. Teams with five or six draws in their last ten actually drew a little less than expected. When both teams had drawn their previous match (1,459 matches), the draw came in 27.7% of the time against 27.2% expected.

This mirrors what we found for BTTS form: short runs of a match outcome are mostly noise.

What this means for betting

Start from about 26%, then adjust for the gap

A typical league match draws about one time in four. Adjust for the league (roughly 23% to 31%) and, more importantly, for how close the teams are: two sides with similar points per game draw about 28%; a mismatch of more than 1.5 points per game draws about 15%.

Don't pay for a team's draw "reputation"

A team that drew 40% of its games last season is no more likely than average to draw this season. Price the draw from the two teams' strength and the league, not from a draw count. The same goes for "due a draw" and "three draws in a row" stories.

The draw is mostly 1-1

If you back the draw, you are really backing a tight, low-scoring game. Low goal expectations give the draw more support than any draw count.

Using draws to price other markets

The draw probability is what separates the win, draw no bet and double chance prices. A sensible draw estimate, built from the league and the gap between the teams, is the first step in judging whether 1X, X2 or DNB is fair.

Method notes

• Source: StatPair match database, full-time scores of domestic league matches. Some matches in some leagues are missing from our records (La Liga has 365 of 380, for example), so a team's match count can be below its full schedule.
• League tables: 24 leagues with 150+ matches in 2025/26 and five calendar-year leagues in 2025. The Czech Liga and other leagues below 150 matches are left out.
• Points per game for the matchup and streak tests is calculated within the same league season, from matches before kick-off only. Promoted and relegated teams start from zero each season.
• Expected draw rate = league-season draw rate × the relative draw rate for that points-per-game gap (0.1-wide bands) across all 16,841 matchup-test matches. Early-season matches without six prior games use the league rate only.
• Team-matches: in the streak table each match counts once for each team.
• No odds or xG: StatPair doesn't store bookmaker odds or xG. Fair odds here are 1 divided by the observed rate.

How to check this with StatPair

1. Note the league baseline from the table above.
2. Open both teams' match-by-match history and compare points per game and goals, using the home/away filter for the relevant venue.
3. Use the opponent filter to see how each team does against sides of similar strength.
4. Use the Trends Finder to scan leagues for tight, low-scoring matchups and save your shortlist in the Notebook.

Try StatPair free for 7 days → · Double chance strategy → · Over 2.5 goals by league →

Related guides: Home win percentage by league · Winning margin by league

FAQ

Q: What percentage of football matches end in a draw?
A: About 26%. In 2025/26, 26.1% of 7,774 league matches across 24 leagues ended level. In the big five leagues the rate was 25.6% over 1,715 matches.

Q: Which league has the most draws?
A: Among the 24 leagues in our 2025/26 data, Serie B in Italy had the most draws, 30.9% of 388 matches, followed by the Süper Lig (28.5%) and the Greek Super League (28.0%). In the 2025 calendar-year season, Argentina's Liga Profesional drew 31.8%. The Saudi Pro League had the fewest draws (22.8%).

Q: What is the most common draw score?
A: 1-1. It accounted for 47.2% of all draws in our 2025/26 sample, against 26.1% for 0-0, 21.8% for 2-2 and 4.9% for 3-3 or higher.

Q: Are teams that draw a lot likely to keep drawing?
A: Not really. A team's draw rate in one season correlated at only 0.10 with its draw rate the next season across 304 teams. The fifth of teams that drew most (37.2%) drew 26.1% the following season, close to the average.

Q: Is a draw more likely after a team has drawn several games in a row?
A: No. After two draws in a row, teams drew 27.5% of their next matches against 27.1% expected for the same leagues and matchups. Teams with six or more draws in their last 10 drew 26.7% next time, slightly below the 28.7% expected.

Bottom line

About one league match in four ends level, and half of those draws are 1-1. The league moves that baseline by a few points, and the gap in strength between the two teams moves it more: close matchups draw about 28% of the time, big mismatches about 15%. What doesn't help is a team's draw record. Draw rates barely repeat from season to season, and runs of draws don't continue. Price the draw from the league and the matchup, not from the draw column in the table.