Home Win Percentage by League 2025/26: How Often the Home Side Wins (9,545 Matches Analysed)

Quick answer: the home team wins about 44% of league matches. Across 9,545 matches in 29 leagues, home sides won 43.7%, draws came in at 26.4%, and away sides won 29.9%. A home win is the single most common result, and it is a long way from a coin flip.

The league moves that number by about 13 points, from 50.5% in the Brasileirão to 37.5% in the A-League. The gap between the two teams moves it by much more. When the home side was already the stronger team by a wide margin, it won 74.2% of the time. When the away side was that much stronger, the home win fell to 20.0%.

Data: StatPair match database · 29 domestic leagues with at least 150 matches · 2025/26 season, and the 2025 season for leagues that run on the calendar year · 9,545 league matches · the 24 summer-to-spring leagues (7,774 matches) are the same cut as our draw percentage study · Updated: 31 October 2026

TL;DR

• Home win rate: 43.7% of 9,545 matches. Draws 26.4%, away wins 29.9%. Home sides scored 1.48 goals per match, away sides 1.19, and took 1.57 points per game at home.
• In the 24 leagues from our draw study the home win rate is 43.4% (7,774 matches), with the same 26.1% draw rate. The big five were at 43.9% home wins over 1,715 matches.
• Leagues span 37.5% to 50.5%. Highest: Brasileirão Série A (50.5%), La Liga (48.2%), Ligue 1 (47.0%). Lowest: A-League Men (37.5%), Serie A (38.3%), Primeira Liga (39.8%).
• Double chance 1X landed in 70.1% of matches. The fair no-margin price of a typical home win is about 2.29 (1 divided by 0.437). StatPair does not store odds.
• Strength beats the postcode. With both teams having played at least six league games, a home side better by more than 1.0 points per game won 74.2% of 423 matches. A home side worse by more than 1.0 won 20.0% of 494.
• Evenly matched teams still show a home edge: home win 44.3%, draw 28.2%, away win 27.4% (1,523 matches within 0.15 points per game).
• A strong home record cools off. The fifth of teams with the best home win rate one season (70.5%) won 58.9% of home games the next. League home-win rates from one season to the next correlated at only 0.08.

How we measured it

Which leagues. Every domestic league in StatPair with at least 150 matches in the season used by the other by-league studies: 2025/26, or the 2025 calendar year for MLS, Argentina, Japan and both Brazilian divisions. Cups, friendlies and European ties are out. A home win is a full-time score, including added time.

The same matches as the draw table. On the 24 summer-to-spring leagues the draw rate is 26.1% of 7,774 matches, the figure in the draw percentage by league study. Adding the five calendar-year leagues moves the draw rate to 26.4% and the home win rate to 43.7%.

Points per game. For the matchup test, points come only from earlier matches in the same league and season. Both teams need at least six previous matches, which leaves 7,888 of the 9,545.

Home win percentage by league

Home goals and away goals are per match. Percentages are rounded to one decimal, so a row can add to 99.9 or 100.1.

The Brasileirão is the only league here where the home team won half its matches: 50.5% of 309, with away wins at 23.0%. La Liga (48.2% of 365) and Ligue 1 (47.0% of 300) are next. The Premier League sits on the average at 43.0% of 374. The A-League is the low end at 37.5% of 160, and Serie A is next among the big leagues at 38.3% of 373, with away wins at 35.4%.

Argentina's home win rate looks modest (41.2%) because the draw is 31.8% and the match averages only 1.95 goals, while away wins are just 27.0%. 1X was 77.0% in the Brasileirão and 64.6% in Serie A and the Danish Superliga. Overall, 1X was 70.1% (6,691 of 9,545) and X2 was 56.3%. Those are the base rates behind double chance and draw no bet: the stake survives on a home win or a draw (70.1%) and wins outright on the 43.7% home wins.

The gap between the teams matters more than the league

League tables move the home win rate by about 13 points from top to bottom. The pre-match gap in points per game moves it by about 54 points.

Both teams needed six earlier matches in that league season. The bands are the home side's points per game minus the away side's.

When the sides are level, the home team wins 44.3% and the away team 27.4% (draw 28.2%). That 17-point gap is the venue effect with strength taken out. An away side better by 0.50 to 1.00 points per game won 42.1% of 1,215 matches, and the home side won 29.3%. Across 28 leagues present in both seasons, the league home-win rate correlated at only 0.08. A league that looked like a home fortress last year was not reliably one this year.

Home records regress, and the next home game only moves a little

Among 470 teams with at least 15 home matches in the latest season, 43 won 70% or more of them and 97 won fewer than 30%.

Barcelona's 17 from 17 is inside the La Liga matches we hold (365 of 380). For 338 teams with at least 12 home matches in both seasons, home win rate correlated at 0.51. The top fifth (67 teams) fell from 70.5% to 58.9%. The bottom fifth rose from 25.4% to 33.7%.

The next home match, inside the same season, moves less than the table above suggests if you only look at the last result.

After a home win the next home win rate is 47.0%. After a home loss it is 39.6%. Two home wins in a row reach 50.3% (1,743 matches). That shift is much smaller than the 74% to 20% range in the points-per-game table, because the next opponent is still the larger number. The most common home wins were 1-0 (1,002 matches, 24.0% of home wins and 10.5% of all matches) and 2-1 (869). The winning margin study covers the same 9,545 matches.

What this means for betting

A typical home win is a 43.7% event, a no-margin price of about 2.29. Serie A was 38.3% (about 2.61). The Brasileirão was 50.5% (about 1.98). Move that league row with the points gap: a home side better by more than a point per game won 74.2%, and a home side worse by that much won 20.0%.

1X covered 70.1% of matches, a no-margin price near 1.43. Double chance shorter than that, before you have a matchup reason, is charging for an edge already in the table. Draw no bet wins on the 43.7% and refunds the draw, so the stake survives 70.1% of the time.

Last season's league home-win rate barely predicted this season's (correlation 0.08). A team's own rate did (0.51) and then shrank, from 70.5% to 58.9% in the top fifth. The even-match row, about 44% home and 27% away, is the venue adjustment. Home sides scored 1.48 and conceded 1.19. High home-goal leagues such as the Eredivisie (1.81) and the Bundesliga (1.78) are the same leagues that lead the over 2.5 table.

Method notes

• Source: StatPair full-time scores. Some schedules are short of the official total (La Liga has 365 of 380).
• Seasons: 2025/26, or calendar 2025, each with at least 150 matches. By 31 October 2026 only League Two had already passed 150 matches in 2026/27, so that partial season stays out.
• Matchup test: 7,888 matches, both clubs with six earlier results. Points are 3 for a win and 1 for a draw. The middle band is a gap from -0.15 to +0.15.
• Next home match is the following home league match for the same club. It is not adjusted for the opponent. Persistence uses 338 clubs with at least 12 home matches in each season. Each fifth is 67 clubs.
• No odds and no xG. A "no-margin price" is 1 divided by the observed rate.

How to check this with StatPair

1. Take the league home-win rate from the table as the baseline.
2. Open both clubs and compare points per game with the home/away filter, so you are looking at the venue that matches the bet.
3. Use the opponent filter to see each side's results against clubs of a similar level.
4. Use Trends Finder for home-win or 1X shortlists, and keep the list in the Notebook. A separate home and away guide walks through the splits StatPair can show for shots, cards and goals as well as results.

Try StatPair free for 7 days → · Draw percentage by league → · Winning margin by league →

FAQ

Q: What percentage of football matches are won by the home team?
A: About 44%. Home teams won 43.7% of 9,545 league matches across 29 leagues in the 2025/26 sample (2025 for calendar-year leagues). In the 24 summer-to-spring leagues the rate was 43.4% of 7,774 matches. Draws were 26.4% overall and away wins 29.9%.

Q: Which league has the highest home win percentage?
A: Brazil's Série A, at 50.5% of 309 matches in 2025. La Liga was next at 48.2% of 365, then Ligue 1 at 47.0% of 300. The lowest was the A-League at 37.5% of 160. Serie A in Italy was 38.3% of 373. The Premier League was 43.0% of 374.

Q: Do home win rates repeat from season to season?
A: Team rates partly do, league rates barely do. Across 338 teams with 12 or more home matches in both seasons, the correlation was 0.51. The best fifth fell from 70.5% to 58.9%. Across 28 leagues the correlation of the league home-win rate was 0.08.

Q: Does the home team still win more often when the sides are evenly matched?
A: Yes. In 1,523 matches where the pre-match points-per-game gap was within 0.15, the home team won 44.3%, the draw came in 28.2% of the time, and the away team won 27.4%. When the away team was better by more than 1.0 points per game, the home win rate fell to 20.0% (494 matches).

Q: Is a home win more likely after the team won its last home game?
A: A little. The next home match was won 47.0% of the time after a home win (3,933 matches) and 39.6% after a home loss (2,676). After two home wins in a row the rate was 50.3% (1,743). That is a smaller shift than the effect of which team is stronger.

Bottom line

The home side wins about 44 matches in 100, draws about 26, and loses about 30. Brazil's top flight is the high end at 50.5%, the A-League the low end at 37.5%, and the Premier League sits on the average at 43.0%. The useful adjustment is the gap between the clubs: level teams still give the home side a 44% to 27% edge, and a home side that is a point per game worse wins only 20%. League home-win reputations do not carry into the next season. Team home rates do, and then they shrink.