Quick answer: about 69% of league matches have a goal in the first half. In 8,801 matches across 29 leagues where the two halves add up to the full-time score, the first half produced at least one goal 68.5% of the time and at least two goals 32.2% of the time. The average first half had 1.15 goals. The average second half had 1.43.
The line moves with the league. The Eredivisie had a first-half goal in 79.6% of matches. Argentina's Liga Profesional had one in 56.3%. A team's own "they always score early" record is a weaker guide than that league row: the best home sides at scoring before the break cooled from 72.1% to 56.9% the next season.
Data: StatPair match and half statistics · 29 domestic leagues · 2025/26, or the 2025 calendar season · 9,545 league matches with a full-time score, of which 8,801 have first-half and second-half goal totals that add up · the 24-league cut of that reconciled sample is 7,174 matches and a 69.6% first-half goal rate, the same rate as our goal in both halves study · Updated: 31 October 2026
TL;DR
- Over 0.5 first-half goals: 68.5% of 8,801 reconciled matches. Over 1.5: 32.2%. Over 2.5: 10.9%. A blank first half was the result in 31.5%.
- One first-half goal is the typical score. 36.3% of matches had exactly one, 21.3% had two, 8.0% had three and 2.9% had four or more.
- The home side scored in the first half in 47.7% of matches, the away side in 39.3%, and both sides in 18.5%.
- By league, over 0.5 runs from 79.6% to 56.3%. Eredivisie 79.6% (279 matches), Bundesliga 75.9% (286), Argentina 56.3% (403), J1 League 59.1% (352). The Premier League was 70.3% of 337.
- On all 9,545 matches the recorded first-half total already shows a goal 68.4% of the time. If every goal missing from the half split had fallen in a blank first half, the rate would be 71.0%. The reconciled 68.5% sits inside that range.
- League rates repeat. Team streaks do not. The correlation of a league's over 0.5 rate from one season to the next was 0.77. A home side's first-half scoring rate correlated at 0.33, and the hottest fifth fell from 72.1% to 56.9%.
How we measured it
Over 0.5 first-half goals means at least one goal, by either team, before the break. Over 1.5 means two or more. The market is the match total, so an own goal counts.
Which matches. The same 29 leagues and the same season as the other by-league studies: 2025/26, or 2025 for MLS, Argentina, Japan and the two Brazilian divisions, each with at least 150 matches. League games only.
The half split has a gap. Half-by-half goal figures in our database sum to fewer goals than the full-time score in 744 of 9,545 matches (7.8%). In every one of those 744, the halves are short of the final total. The same gap showed up in the goal-in-both-halves study, and it is consistent with goals (including own goals) that the half feed does not assign. We do not guess which half they belong to.
The main table uses the 8,801 matches where first-half goals plus second-half goals equal the full-time score. On the recorded first-half column for all 9,545 matches, over 0.5 is 68.4%. That is a floor, because a missing goal could still have been scored before the break. The ceiling, if every missing goal rescued a 0-0 first half, is 71.0%. Anything we publish as "about 69%" has to live between those two.
On the reconciled matches, the home and away first-half goals also add up to the match first-half total, so the "who scored" split below is the same 8,801 games.
First-half goal lines by league
| League | Season | Matches | 1st-half goals | Over 0.5 | Over 1.5 | Over 2.5 | Home scored | Away scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eredivisie | 2025/26 | 279 | 1.40 | 79.6% | 41.6% | 14.7% | 63.4% | 41.2% |
| Bundesliga | 2025/26 | 286 | 1.42 | 75.9% | 43.0% | 15.7% | 52.4% | 45.1% |
| Croatian HNL | 2025/26 | 166 | 1.19 | 75.3% | 33.7% | 7.8% | 47.6% | 46.4% |
| Scottish Premiership | 2025/26 | 198 | 1.22 | 75.3% | 34.3% | 9.1% | 51.5% | 41.9% |
| MLS | 2025 | 390 | 1.38 | 74.9% | 38.7% | 16.9% | 55.1% | 45.9% |
| Danish Superliga | 2025/26 | 177 | 1.44 | 74.6% | 40.7% | 19.2% | 52.0% | 42.4% |
| Saudi Pro League | 2025/26 | 235 | 1.23 | 73.2% | 32.8% | 12.8% | 51.1% | 41.3% |
| A-League Men | 2025/26 | 150 | 1.22 | 72.7% | 33.3% | 12.7% | 47.3% | 50.0% |
| Ekstraklasa | 2025/26 | 277 | 1.20 | 70.8% | 33.9% | 11.6% | 52.7% | 38.3% |
| Liga MX | 2025/26 | 238 | 1.33 | 70.6% | 37.8% | 18.1% | 54.6% | 40.8% |
| Premier League | 2025/26 | 337 | 1.13 | 70.3% | 31.8% | 9.2% | 49.0% | 37.1% |
| Belgian Pro League | 2025/26 | 278 | 1.19 | 69.8% | 34.9% | 12.2% | 49.3% | 39.6% |
| Championship | 2025/26 | 497 | 1.17 | 69.6% | 34.0% | 10.3% | 47.9% | 38.2% |
| Greek Super League | 2025/26 | 217 | 1.19 | 69.6% | 33.2% | 12.9% | 45.6% | 41.9% |
| La Liga | 2025/26 | 345 | 1.13 | 69.3% | 30.7% | 9.3% | 47.5% | 39.1% |
| League One | 2025/26 | 513 | 1.13 | 69.0% | 29.8% | 10.5% | 47.0% | 39.0% |
| Ligue 1 | 2025/26 | 277 | 1.17 | 68.6% | 31.4% | 12.3% | 47.3% | 39.4% |
| Brasileirão Série A | 2025 | 287 | 1.06 | 68.3% | 26.5% | 8.7% | 52.3% | 31.0% |
| Serie B (Italy) | 2025/26 | 364 | 1.08 | 68.1% | 30.2% | 6.3% | 46.4% | 39.6% |
| Primeira Liga | 2025/26 | 276 | 1.13 | 67.4% | 33.3% | 10.9% | 44.2% | 40.6% |
| Segunda División | 2025/26 | 422 | 1.13 | 67.1% | 32.0% | 10.0% | 44.5% | 42.2% |
| Romanian Liga I | 2025/26 | 287 | 1.13 | 66.2% | 32.8% | 11.5% | 48.8% | 36.2% |
| Süper Lig | 2025/26 | 273 | 1.09 | 65.6% | 30.8% | 10.6% | 44.0% | 37.7% |
| League Two | 2025/26 | 509 | 1.11 | 65.4% | 32.2% | 10.0% | 43.6% | 40.9% |
| Israeli Ligat Ha'al | 2025/26 | 222 | 1.23 | 64.9% | 34.2% | 16.2% | 45.9% | 38.3% |
| Serie A (Italy) | 2025/26 | 351 | 1.01 | 64.4% | 26.8% | 8.5% | 40.2% | 39.3% |
| Brazil Serie B | 2025 | 195 | 0.91 | 61.5% | 23.6% | 4.6% | 44.1% | 35.9% |
| J1 League | 2025 | 352 | 1.00 | 59.1% | 28.4% | 8.8% | 42.0% | 34.4% |
| Argentina Liga Profesional | 2025 | 403 | 0.80 | 56.3% | 18.9% | 3.5% | 38.5% | 29.0% |
| All 29 leagues | – | 8,801 | 1.15 | 68.5% | 32.2% | 10.9% | 47.7% | 39.3% |
Match counts are the reconciled games, so they sit below the full league schedule. The Eredivisie row is 279 of 301 matches in the wider sample. The ranking uses those complete halves.
The Eredivisie had a first-half goal in 79.6% of 279 matches, with the home side on the scoresheet in 63.4%. The Danish Superliga has the highest first-half average, 1.44, and the highest over 2.5 share, 19.2% of 177. The Premier League is ordinary: 70.3% over 0.5 and 31.8% over 1.5, from 337 matches.
Argentina is the quiet end: 56.3% over 0.5, 18.9% over 1.5, 3.5% over 2.5, and 0.80 first-half goals, from 403 matches. Japan (59.1%) and Brazil's Serie B (61.5%) also average under a goal before the break. Serie A is the quiet big-five league at 64.4% over 0.5, and the home side scored before the break in 40.2% of 351 matches, which fits the low home-win rate in the home win study.
Across the 29 leagues, full-match goals per game correlated at 0.82 with over 0.5 and at 0.93 with over 1.5. The over 2.5 by league table and this one move together.
What the first-half score actually looks like
On the 8,801 reconciled matches:
| First-half goals | Matches | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2,768 | 31.5% |
| 1 | 3,198 | 36.3% |
| 2 | 1,877 | 21.3% |
| 3 | 704 | 8.0% |
| 4 or more | 254 | 2.9% |
Over 0.5 is the complement of the blank row: 68.5%. Over 1.5 is everything from two goals up: 32.2%. Three or more is 10.9%.
The home side scored in 47.7% of first halves and the away side in 39.3%. Both scored before the break in 18.5%. That is a different market from goal in both halves, which asks whether each half of the match has a goal. The A-League is the only league where the away side scored more often before the break (50.0% against 47.3%, 150 matches). The gap is widest in the Eredivisie (63.4% against 41.2%).
The second half still holds more goals: 1.43 against 1.15. The half-time betting study found the same shape in the big five. What happens after a given half-time score is in the half-time score study.